In recent days a prediction about the price of $ETH has been circulating, suggesting that an altseason might be on the way.
It is a prediction that is gaining support, although to be honest it seems more like a hope than an actual forecast based on concrete data.
However, there is at least one historical figure that seems to point precisely in this direction.
Ethereum’s May
On CryptoRank you can view the table of monthly returns for the price of $ETH from 2015 to 2026, that is, from when Ethereum was launched up to today.
Taking into consideration the average monthly returns, the month that over the years has yielded the most for $ETH has been May.
In fact, while June and September even have a negative average, May is the only one that exceeds 30%. It must be said that an average monthly +34% is really a lot, even if it is an average calculated over only ten years (from May 2016 to May 2025).
Moreover, the best month ever for the price of $ETH was May 2017, with an incredible +190%.
However, it must be specified that these percentages are not calculated on average values, nor as the sum of each day’s return, but only as the percentage difference between the opening price on the first of May and the closing price on the 31st of the same month.
Furthermore, on at least two occasions (2018 and 2022) the month of May also ended with a sharp loss, and these are precisely the only two precedents of a true and deep bear market for Ethereum (therefore similar to 2026).
The prediction
In the hypothetical case that May 2026 also closes with a 34% rebound in the price of $ETH, if it were to start with a price around $2,300, it should close just below $3,100, which is also the figure that emerges as possible from other estimates.
However, in reality, before going that far one should focus on another, much more important short-term threshold: $2,800.
Since the end of January the price of Ethereum has constantly remained below that threshold, and according to several analysts this would be a real barrier that is very difficult to overcome in the short term.
Indeed, from the beginning of February until today it has not even managed to surpass $2,500, so there are also other hurdles to overcome before being able to aim at attacking $2,800.
To tell the truth, though, $2,500 was approached shortly after mid-April, even if it was not reached, and this suggests that another attempt might also be made soon. In any case, even if it were to surpass it, the road to $2,800 would still only be at the beginning, and it could be very difficult even to get close to this first important psychological threshold.
In the very short term instead, the key threshold seems to be $2,320.
Ethereum’s problems
The fact is that the trend of the price of $ETH has not had any momentum of its own for several days now.
In fact, by analyzing the performance of the price of Ethereum in Bitcoin (ETHBTC) it turns out that since April 14 $ETH has actually performed worse than $BTC, going in less than two weeks from 0.032 $BTC to the current 0.030.
It is also true, however, that this downward phase actually ended last Thursday just below 0.030 $BTC, and since then the situation has stabilized. This, however, confirms that at this moment the trend of the price of Ethereum is doing nothing but following that of Bitcoin.
Therefore, if Bitcoin does not start rising again, it seems rather unlikely that Ethereum could even go and retest $2,500 in the short term.
The altseason
If, however, in the month of May the above prediction were hypothetically to come true, it is possible that a mini-altseason could also be triggered.
As for a real altseason, for now there is no sign at all that shows it as possible in the short or medium term, but mini-altseasons are different.
A possible +34% for $ETH could trigger a rise spread across many other altcoins as well, so much so that, for example, the last mini-altseason, the one in November 2024, was driven by a +47% in $ETH.
It must be reiterated, however, that, just as during the 2018 bear market and the one in 2022, in May the price of $ETH could also fall, and perhaps even by 30% as happened in 2022.
The fact that $2,500 already seems to be an obstacle that is not easy to approach and overcome makes the achievement of $3,100 next month even more unlikely.
