Analyzing some of the key metrics for Bitcoin (BTC), it appears to be poised for a price surge despite the ongoing broader market correction following renewed interest.
The Accumulation Trend Score
On April 18 2025 the Accumulation Trend Score for Bitcoin reached 0.4268 while the BTC price rested at $84,957.
The accumulation activity showed moderate signs while indicating investor entrance after markets experienced stagnancy according to this analysis score.
Strong bullish swings in Bitcoin prices from following the 1.0 accumulation score continuously throughout late 2024 but especially during November to December when BTC went from less than $70,000 to above $90,000.
The latest accumulation scores have remained between 0.2 and 0.3 since March and early April 2025 which indicates decreased buying activity.
BTC Accumulation Trend | Score: X
An accumulation score of 0.42 indicates that potential institutions alongside large holders may still possess bullish intentions regarding BTC price recovery.
BTC could sustain an upward movement by building support from accumulation activities as it approaches a value of 1.0 which might result in retesting and surpassing previous price levels surpassing $90,000.
The trend score indicates this potential period of cautious buying may not last very long because it has not reached strong confidence levels.
Another drop in demand could cause BTC to return to its distribution phase where it would result in additional price stabilization or correction.
The essential requirement to monitor this score continuously exists because accumulated blockchain data may eventually produce a major uptrend.
Tracking BTC Price Moves
Bitcoin’s cycle has entered a possible turning point as 170,000 BTC moved from short-lived ownership into longer timeframes.
Large movements of Bitcoin from temporary to long-term holder positions throughout history have often formed a basis for significant market price fluctuations.
Changes in the price of Bitcoin align between green zones as price rises and red zones lead to price drops according to historical data displayed in the chart.
The current movement indicates that fresh Bitcoin owners are acquiring coins for extended timeframes which frequently serves as a sign before price rises resume.
BTC spent output bands | Source: CryptoQuant
The continuing pattern indicates a possible establishment of a strong investor base through the exit of weak investors and accumulation by stronger hands which increases prospects for an extended price increase.
The BTC price might enter into a downward correction toward recent consolidation support levels if fresh demand from this shift does not emerge.
The current Bitcoin price near $84,975, could influence future market direction as holders change positions but the actual outcome depends on how much market players participate.
Dynamic market fluctuations are likely to arise from investors processing this alteration in the market structure.
Lag Between Global Money Supply and Bitcoin
The Bitcoin price decoupling from global M2 money supply occurred at the same magnitude in September 2024 that led to a 90% price growth in BTC.
The most recent data reveal M2 supply of the top 21 central banks saw a steep increase from $105 trillion to $108 trillion with a growing YoY growth rate.
The Bitcoin market maintained nearly the same price level near $84,000 while showing a timing delay similar to Q3 2024.
M2 Global Supply & BTC growth rate | Source: X
The Bitcoin price stabilized at $60K while the market experienced liquidity expansion that caused its value to surge past $114K throughout a few weeks.
The current M2 supply increase demonstrates potential future power as a fuel source for such delayed market shifts.
The strengthening of risk asset market demand could cause BTC to recover its previous price peaks or surge beyond them.
When macroeconomic factors become rigid or the M2 curve shows early slowing down of growth, potential upward price movements may fail to develop as predicted.
