By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin
The Federal Reserve is now widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with the CME’s FedWatch tool weighing a 93.4% chance of that happening. On Polymarket, traders are slightly less convinced, seeing a 79% chance of a cut. Traders are positioning for reductions at the following two meetings as well.
Add in strong earnings from major companies and a weakening U.S. dollar, and the outlook is looking a little stronger for equities and other risk assets. The Nikkei 225 rose 0.65% today, the Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.2% and the S&P 500 closed up 0.73% on Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.2% on news of chip tariff exemptions and President Trump signaling he may appoint dovish members to the Fed.
In a sign of long-term institutional interest, the State of Michigan Retirement System (SMRS) said boosted its bitcoin exposure through spot ETFs in the second quarter.
Yet the real story may be how little BTC is moving. The cryptocurrency’s 30-day implied volatility, as tracked by the BVIV index from Volmex, has dropped to 36.5%, a level not seen since October 2023, when bitcoin traded under $30,000.
The pattern resembles Wall Street’s bull markets, where implied volatility tends to shrink as optimism grows. In previous cycles, bitcoin’s price and volatility moved in tandem.
Structured crypto projects that allow investors to sell out-of-the-money call options to generate yield may be playing a part in reducing the volatility.
Still, geopolitical risk isn’t going to go away. Trump levied an additional 25% tariff on India over its Russian oil purchases, which could lead to a “mini crunch in supplies if Delhi draws on other crude sources instead,” Hargreaves Lansdown said in an emailed note. That would likely force OPEC+ members to amp up production to avoid a crisis, Hargreaves Lansdown said.
On top of that, while peace talks on Ukraine have been advancing, recent nuclear rhetoric suggests there’s a long way to go. Stay alert!
What to Watch
- Crypto
- Aug. 7, 10 a.m.: Circle will host a webinar, “The GENIUS Act Era Begins,” featuring Dante Disparte and Corey Then. The session will discuss the first U.S. federal payment stablecoin framework and its impact on crypto innovation and regulation.
- Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.
- Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
- Macro
- Aug. 7, 7 a.m.: The U.K.’s central bank, the Bank of England (BoE), announces its monetary policy decision.
- Bank Rate Est. 4% vs. Prev. 4.25%
- Aug. 7, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases June producer price inflation data.
- PPI MoM Prev. -1.29%
- PPI YoY Prev. 5.78%
- Aug. 7, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases July consumer price inflation data.
- Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.39%
- Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 4.23% vs. Prev. 4.24%
- Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.28% vs. Prev. 0.28%
- Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.53% vs. Prev. 4.32%
- Aug. 7, 3 p.m.: Mexico’s central bank, Banco de México, announces its monetary policy decision.
- Overnight Interbank Target Rate Est. 7.75% vs. Prev. 8%
- Aug. 8: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana D. Kugler’s resignation becomes effective, creating an early vacancy on the Board of Governors that allows President Trump to nominate a successor.
- Aug. 7, 7 a.m.: The U.K.’s central bank, the Bank of England (BoE), announces its monetary policy decision.
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Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.07
- Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.63
- Aug. 7: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $0.30,
- Aug. 7: Coincheck Group (CNCK), post-market, N/A
- Aug. 7: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, -$0.07
- Aug. 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.06
- Aug. 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market, $0.12
- Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market, -$0.02
- Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market, N/A
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Arbitrum DAO is voting to renew its partnership with Entropy Advisors for two more years, starting September 2025. The proposal includes $6 million in funding and 15 million ARB for incentives for Entropy to focus on treasury management, incentive design, data infrastructure, and ecosystem growth. Voting ends Aug. 7.
- BendDAO is voting on a plan to stabilize BEND by burning 50% of treasury tokens, restarting lender rewards, and launching monthly buybacks using 20% of protocol revenue. Voting ends Aug. 10.
- 1inch DAO is voting on a $1.88 million grant to fund its participation in nine global crypto events through late 2025. The proposal aims to boost developer engagement, grow institutional ties and expand adoption across ecosystems like Ethereum and Solana. Voting ends Aug. 10.
- Aug. 7, 12 p.m.: Celo to host a governance call.
- Aug. 8, 11:30 a.m.: Axie Infinity to host a town hall on Discord.
- Unlocks
- Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $12.66 million.
- Aug. 12: Aptos to unlock 1.73% of its circulating supply worth $48.18 million.
- Aug. 15: Avalanche to unlock 0.39% of its circulating supply worth $37.2 million.
- Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating supply worth $15.40 million.
- Aug. 15: Sei to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply worth $16.52 million.
- Aug. 16: Arbitrum to unlock 1.8% of its circulating supply worth $36.52 million.
- Aug. 18: Fasttoken to unlock 4.64% of its circulating supply worth $91.4 million.
- Token Launches
- Aug. 7: TaleX (X) to be listed on Binance Alpha, BingX, MEXC, and others.
Conferences
The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.
- Day 2 of 2: Blockchain Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
- Day 2 of 5: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
- Day 1 of 2: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
- Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
- Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)
- Aug. 11: Paraguay Blockchain Summit 2025 (Asuncion)
- Aug. 11-13: AIBB 2025 (Istanbul)
- Aug. 11-17: Ethereum NYC (New York)
- Aug. 13-14: CryptoWinter ‘25 (Queenstown, New Zealand)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
- The Solana-based Troll memecoin has surged over 1,050% in two weeks, jumping from a $16 million to $184 million market cap. It’s now ranked No. 32 among all meme tokens, according to CoinGecko.
- But Carlos Ramirez, the artist behind the original Trollface meme, says he wants nothing to do with it, calling the token’s hype a “cursed proposition” in his first interview in a decade.
- Ramirez told Decrypt he’s constantly offered Troll-related token allocations, but refuses to participate, saying he’d either be stuck holding worthless supply or blamed for a crash if he sold.
- Still, Ramirez promoted a separate Troll token earlier this year — and again this week — leading to confusion over his stance.
- He criticized the memecoin economy as profit-driven and artistically hollow, saying the financial incentives undermine authentic expression and reduce art to speculation.
- Ramirez added that at least 30 different Troll tokens have been minted across platforms like Bags, none with his blessing — a pattern he sees as exploitative and detached from the original spirit of the meme.
- The saga highlights the growing tension between viral internet culture and tokenized financialization, especially as legacy creators push back against involuntary meme monetization in Web3.
Derivatives Positioning
- Bitcoin futures open interest remains firm at $78.5 billion, with CME leading at $16.24 billion (a 21% market share). This confirms persistent institutional engagement, especially as CME’s BTC basis rose to 3.6% — among the highest across venues — hinting at spot-driven interest or hedged long exposure.
- ETH futures open interest rose to $48.18 billion, a 3.57% increase over the past week. CME’s ETH OI rose 4.56% in the past 24 hours alone, alongside a basis of 2.6%, showing that institutions are re-entering ETH positioning aggressively — likely tied to ETF speculation and technical breakout setups.
- Altcoin positioning is back in focus, with XRP OI up 1.6% daily to $7.33 billion. CME’s XRP basis is a standout at 8.4%, far exceeding other venues and suggesting leveraged long appetite or premium pricing for compliant exposure. XRP open interest is now concentrated across Bybit and Binance, indicating retail-trader skew.
- Funding rates remain elevated across majors, with BTC, ETH, DOGE and XRP all capped at the 0.03% daily limit (about 11% annualized). SOL funding is less aggressive around 0.006%, but the 30-day average sits at the cap, implying longer-term leveraged bias even if short-term flows are cooling.
- The derivatives volume remains concentrated, with Binance and Bybit collectively holding 29% of BTC OI, while CME continues to grow. For ETH, CME now accounts for nearly 12% of total open interest, a key institutional marker that wasn’t true even two months ago.
- Risk-reward asymmetry may be building, as sustained long-heavy funding, rising CME premiums, and relative flatness in altcoin open interest suggest an environment ripe for volatility. The next move — whether a breakout or a flush — is likely to be aggressive, given the significant directional leverage now in place.
Market Movements
- BTC is unchanged from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $115,030.54 (24hrs: +1.29%)
- ETH is up 1.41% at $3,727.41 (24hrs: +4.97%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.67% at 3,846.17 (24hrs: +2.98%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.9%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0095% (10.4386% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 98.13
- Gold futures are up 0.52% at $3,451.20
- Silver futures are up 1.29% at $38.39
- Nikkei 225 closed up 0.65% at 41,059.15
- Hang Seng closed up 0.69% at 25,081.63
- FTSE is down 0.24% at 9,142.34
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.72% at 5,353.88
- DJIA closed on Wednesday up 0.18% at 44,193.12
- S&P 500 closed up 0.73% at 6,345.06
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.21% at 21,169.42
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.27% at 27,920.87
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.89% at 2,613.50
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.3 bps at 4.235%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.66% at 6,413.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.69% at 23,585.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.45% at 44,511.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 61.6% (-0.20%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03239 (1.13%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 955 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $57.48
- Total fees: 5.88 BTC / $674,584
- CME Futures Open Interest: 138,150 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 34.0%
- BTC vs gold market cap: 9.63%
Crypto Equities
- Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $383.41 (+2.12%), +0.13% at $383.89 in pre-market
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $303.58 (+1.88%), +1.55% at $308.28
- Circle (CRCL): closed at $161.71 (+5.05%), +2.03% at $165
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $27.34 (-1.23%), +2.63% at $28.06
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.89 (+1.73%), +0.44% at $15.96
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.66 (+4.76%), +0.69% at $11.74
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.11 (+0.21%), +0.28% at $14.15
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11 (+1.57%), +1% at $11.11
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $25.73 (+3.54%)
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.66 (+2.27%), +1.65% at $36.25
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $29.36 (+1.59%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $22.14 (+9.44%), +3.16% at $22.84
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $91.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $53.73 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $35.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $9.15 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.59 million
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
- Top crypto traders — the 20% of users with the highest margin balance on Binance — turned bullish on BTC before its recent recovery, with the ratio of long to short positions reaching 1.51, indicating a strong lean towards longs, SoSoValue data shows.
- While the top traders’ ratio has since risen to 1.81, the overall market’s is at 1.18, showing widespread bullish sentiment, per SoSoValue data.
While You Were Sleeping
- Bitcoin’s Volatility Disappears to Levels Not Seen Since October 2023 (CoinDesk): Despite a 60% rally since November 2024, demand for options remains subdued, driving 30-day implied volatility — a gauge of expected price swings — to its lowest since October 2023.
- Staggering U.S. Tariffs Begin as Trump Widens Trade War (The New York Times): Hours before new levies took effect, Trump floated a 100% tariff on semiconductors, seemingly brushing off stagflation warnings from economists and business concerns over unsustainable import costs.
- U.S. Trading Partners Race to Secure Exemptions From Trump’s Tariffs (The Wall Street Journal): Several trade partners with signed agreements, including the EU, Japan and South Korea, are still pressing for sector-specific relief while unresolved terms continue to create confusion around implementation.
- UK Crypto Investors Hail Regulatory Changes as ‘Pivotal Moment’ (Financial Times): U.K. retail investors will gain access to 17 bitcoin and ether exchange-traded notes in October as the country’s financial regulator lifts its retail ban. U.S.-listed spot crypto ETFs will remain inaccessible.
- Exclusive: Rubio Orders US Diplomats to Launch Lobbying Blitz Against Europe’s Tech Law (Reuters): An Aug. 4 classified directive from the U.S. State Department, signed by Marco Rubio, called on embassy officials to push back against Europe’s Digital Services Act and defend U.S. tech interests.
- With South Korea’s CBDC Plans Dead, KakaoBank Joins Stablecoin Gold Rush (CoinDesk): KakaoBank’s CFO highlighted the firm’s preparedness for stablecoin issuance and custody, pointing to its work on Korea’s shelved CBDC pilot and its track record handling compliance for crypto exchanges.
In the Ether
