Bitcoin ($BTC) traded near $68,700 after Wall Street opened Friday, recovering from an earlier drop to about $67,500.
Key points:
- Bitcoin did not reclaim $70,000 after falling to about $67,500 on Friday, its lowest level since mid-August.
- The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 6.5% year over year in October, 0.1 percentage points below expectations, though it was still the largest rise since November 2022.
- Rekt Capital cautioned that a weekly close below $73,000 could be Bitcoin’s third break below that support level in 2026.
US PPI posts biggest annual increase since Q4 2022
TradingView data showed $BTC/USD down 4% for the day after rebounding from a roughly 12-week low near $67,500.
$BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The US Producer Price Index, which measures changes in the prices domestic producers receive for goods and services, rose 0.3% month over month and 6.5% year over year in October. Both figures came in 0.1 percentage points below market expectations, while the annual increase was the largest since November 2022.
“Leading the October advance in final demand prices, the index for final demand goods increased 0.5 percent. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent,” the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said Friday.
US PPI one-month percentage change. Source: BLS
Stocks showed little relief as US trading began, with investors continuing to assess developments around Nvidia after its co-founder and CEO, Jensen Huang, resigned on Thursday.
The S&P 500 had fallen 1.2% at the time of writing, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index was down 1.5%.
Nasdaq Composite Index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The PPI report prompted markets to make a slight adjustment to expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. The probability of a modest 25-basis-point increase at the Fed’s December meeting rose from 85.4% on Thursday to 89.7%. Meanwhile, the odds of a larger 50-basis-point move fell from 14.5% to 10.3%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Fed target-rate probability comparison for the December FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group
Economist Robin Brooks called a 25-basis-point hike in December “all but inevitable.” He argued against a steeper increase, however, saying it would be ineffective against current inflation drivers: the oil-price spike caused by the US-Iran war and a possible long-term acceleration in underlying inflation.
“If high inflation is about the Strait of Hormuz and oil, 75 basis points won’t do anything about that. If the issue is that the pace of underlying inflation has risen, then 75 basis points is much too timid to get this under control,” he wrote.
Related: Stablecoin supply falls $14.2B in biggest 30-day drop since June 2022
Bitcoin risks repeating breakdown that came before a $60,000 decline
Crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that a $BTC close below $73,000 on Sunday would signal a support breakdown previously seen in 2026.
“Last week’s Weekly Candle Closed below 3 Weekly levels,” he wrote on X, referring to $75,000, $76,800 and $78,300. “This Weekly Candle looks set to do something similar. Which is testament to sell-side momentum still gaining and the bears being in control.”
After both previous breakdowns, Bitcoin dropped to around $60,000.
$BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com
At $68,700, $BTC/USD is down 17.7% in the fourth quarter and 11.2% month to date. CoinGlass data confirms that Bitcoin’s quarterly performance is currently its second worst on record.
$BTC/USD quarterly returns. Source: CoinGlass
