Bitcoin traded near $68,500 in its latest session, falling below the $70,000 to $75,000 range it had held in previous sessions.
Matt Mena, a senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said a sustained decline below $69,000 could potentially lead to a test of support at $65,000. For a genuine recovery, Bitcoin would first need to reclaim $70,000, then $74,000, he said.
The levels everyone is watching
Bitcoin’s intraday lows fell to between $67,500 and $68,000. Market analysts attributed the decline to broader market conditions rather than crypto-specific factors.
A more telling signal is Bitcoin’s current trading level. It has fallen below its 200-week moving average, which is near $68,000.
Mena’s framework can be summarized as a straightforward decision tree:
- Below $69,000 (sustained): a potential test of $65,000
- Back above $70,000: the first step toward a recovery
- Back above $74,000: the next hurdle for a sustained rebound
How we got here
Earlier in November, Bitcoin traded above the $75,000 to $80,000 range, but failed to hold those levels.
Bitcoin’s fall from there to $68,500 has shifted attention from crypto-specific catalysts to the macroeconomic calendar. Market participants are watching US dollar strength and inflation data for clues about the next price move.
Despite the near-term warning, Mena was cautiously optimistic about the longer-term outlook. He suggested Bitcoin could reach $87,000 and possibly exceed $90,000.
His reasoning draws on seasonality. Mena cited Bitcoin’s historical fourth-quarter performance, which has averaged returns of more than 61%.
What this means for traders and investors
For short-term traders, $69,000 is the near-term pivot, and Bitcoin is currently below that level. If it remains below, Mena’s scenario points to a possible test of $65,000. Reclaiming $70,000 would be the first sign of a potentially lasting bounce, but Mena’s framework suggests that $70,000 alone would not be enough. A recovery would look sustained only above $74,000.
Institutional demand is another factor to monitor. Changes in ETF flows may offer clues about how confident larger investors are in Bitcoin at these levels.
For those following the market, the practical takeaway is to watch a few key levels: $65,000 on the downside, $69,000 as the pivot, and $70,000 and $74,000 on a recovery.
