Bitcoin might be struggling at the moment, but recurring historical price action shows a notable turnaround is on the horizon.
Notably, Bitcoin has corrected considerably from its all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025, marking the end of its cyclical bullish phase. At the current price near $71,000, this represents a 43.7% drop from the peak. Still, the crypto leader is approaching a phase where it bottoms and starts another bullish season.
Key Points
- Bitcoin is following a price fractal that has defined its bull market phase since 2011, offering insights into periods of correction and expansion.
- Bitcoin is nearing the completion of the fourth fractal cycle, which began in late 2022, having moved through periods of accumulation, markup, and distribution.
- If the timeline of the previous fractals continues to align, $BTC will reach the final discount phase between October 6 and 16, 2026, with the buy zone around $41,500 and $45,000.
- In the meantime, Bitcoin is in a “no-trader zone” between $65,636 and $70,685, and the next big move lies outside this range.
Bitcoin Follows 15-Year Pattern
Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted in a recent commentary that Bitcoin is following a 15-year pattern. According to him, a price fractal has defined the asset’s bull market phase since 2011, offering insights into periods of correction and expansion.
An accompanying chart shows that this fractal has followed a 4-year timeframe, marked with periods of accumulation, markup, distribution, and the bear market. The price action has repeated itself for several years, with each push driving $BTC to a new all-time high.
Bitcoin 4-Year Fractal/Ali Martinez
Currently, Bitcoin is nearing the completion of the fourth fractal cycle, which began in late 2022. After reaching a bottom in November 2022, following a low of around $15,000, Bitcoin entered an accumulation period, marked by consolidation and strong whale market entry. The momentum escalated to a period of expansion, pushing $BTC much higher.
The distribution phase, representing periods when holders begin to take profits near market tops, has also been completed. After the October 2025 top, the bear market has started.
Final Discount Window
However, this period of massive price downturn is also a short phase like others. Martinez highlighted that if history repeats, Bitcoin could be nearing its “final discount” window. This suggests a period where the asset’s price reaches its bottom and starts a fresh four-year cycle.
If the timeline of the previous fractals continues to align, the analyst predicts that $BTC will reach this discount phase between October 6 and 16, 2026. Around this time, he sees a golden entry opportunity unraveling itself for whales to start accumulating. According to him, the Bitcoin price could be around $41,500 and $45,000, representing a possible buy zone.
From there, he expects a vertical move in a new cycle to start. If history repeats, this could take the premier asset to unprecedented prices.
Bitcoin at No-Trader Zone
In the meantime, Martinez noted in a parallel analysis that Bitcoin is in a “no-trader zone.” Here, he urges traders to remain patient and wait for a sustained break either above or below an identified price range.
Per the analysis, this range lies between $65,636 and $70,685, where over 1.72 million $BTC changed hands. Martinez identified this using the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). According to him, buyers and sellers are “digging in their heels,” and $BTC won’t see a substantial price move until a breakout defines its direction.
Bitcoin $BTC is stuck in a “No-Trade Zone.”
Right now, the area between $70,685 and $65,636 is the most important spot on the chart. Over 1.72 million $BTC were transacted here, meaning buyers and sellers are digging in their heels.
We won’t see the next big move until Bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/4qjJkoRbio
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) March 23, 2026
The URPD chart shows no areas of interest if $BTC breaks higher until its price reaches between $83,307 and $84,569. However, the next significant support lies at $63,111.
