Strategist Sees Bitcoin Recovering Toward $90,000
Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21shares, an issuer of crypto investment products, assessed bitcoin’s rebound in commentary provided directly to Bitcoin.com News on Nov. 13. The 21shares strategist said bitcoin had found support around $69,000 and retested $70,000 after the producer price index, or PPI, was released. The index measures prices received by U.S. producers.
“We view this bounce as an encouraging sign that buyers are stepping in as selling pressure eases, though a sustained recovery will require bitcoin to reclaim $70K and then $74K,” Mena said. “Bitcoin is showing immense strength, although it may not seem so, setting higher lows that are ~20% above its $57K cycle low.” He added:
“Holding $69K would help establish a base for that recovery, while a break below it would leave $65K vulnerable to another test.”
The higher lows Mena described are successive price troughs above earlier ones, relative to the $57,000 cycle low he cited.
PPI Brings Relief as Annual Inflation Picks Up
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning that producer prices rose 0.3% in October, slowing from September’s revised increase of 1.4%. However, annual producer inflation accelerated to 6.5% from 6.3%, its highest rate since November 2022. Excluding food, energy and trade services, prices rose 0.5% monthly and 4.9% annually.
Before the inflation report, bitcoin had rebounded from an intraday low near $67,500 and nearly reclaimed $70,000 soon after its release. The recovery came after bitcoin fell through $74,000, $72,000 and $70,000. Trading volume during the rebound remained modest compared with the preceding selling. Bitcoin recently traded below $69,000 as the recovery faded again.
The rebound also came after a major liquidation wave, with crypto liquidations totaling $1.62 billion over a 24-hour period. Bullish positions made up $1.46 billion of the total. Forced selling added pressure as leveraged positions in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were unwound.
Institutional demand remained under pressure: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $284.1 million on Nov. 12, their sixth consecutive session of withdrawals. Blackrock’s IBIT accounted for $203.8 million of the total. The redemptions came before the PPI release and Mena’s assessment of renewed buying.
August Rally Shapes Longer-Term Outlook
In technical analysis of bitcoin’s price movements, support is an area where buying could slow a decline, while resistance is an area where selling could hinder an advance. From $69,000, a move to $87,000 would require a gain of about 26%, while reaching $90,000 would represent an advance of about 30%.
In commentary provided Oct. 14, the strategist had previously outlined a potential move toward $90,000 and identified $85,000 as resistance. His latest outlook maintained that possibility after the subsequent sell-off and cited seasonality, or recurring performance patterns during certain periods of the year.
Mena explained his outlook: “It is also worth remembering how quickly bitcoin can move once momentum turns. Bitcoin’s late-August surge from roughly $62K to $78K in just three days, a 25% move, shows how quickly upside momentum can return.” He continued:
“A recovery toward $87K and an eventual push above $90K could still be in the cards, especially when seasonality is factored in, as Q4 has historically been the best quarter for bitcoin, averaging over 61% returns.”
“For now, defending support and reclaiming the levels lost this week are the first steps,” the strategist concluded.
