Bitcoin traded at $104,678 after posting an intraday high of $105.997 at press time. Despite its steady hold above the six-figure mark for nearly a month, a growing number of long-term holders are taking profits. Technical analyst EGRAG CRYPTO has released a chart predicting a cycle top at $175,231 and a retracement low near $34,000, raising questions about how the market will react in the months ahead.
EGRAG’s Chart Forecasts $175K Bitcoin Top Then $34K Bottom
The forecast provided by EGRAG uses long-term Fibonacci extensions, moving averages, and market cycle durations. According to the analysis, the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, at $175,231, is expected to be the highest point of the Bitcoin cycle. Previous peaks, notably in 2017 and 2021, aligned with these Fibonacci signals. Furthermore, the initial resistance levels are recognized at $103,225 and $120,239 before the concluding rally phase.
Support zones lie near $34,000, where several major moving averages converge. EGRAG uses these zones to define a potential 66% drawdown after a top is reached. This would mimic prior cycle behavior, such as the 77% decline from around $64,000 to $15,600 between 2021 and the end of 2022.
Source: X
The analysis anticipates a peak by Q4 2025, supported by monthly candle structure and cycle timing that reflects earlier bull runs. The chart also displays key bottom patterns from 2020 and 2023. Historical support areas confirm the reliability of a projected support zone if a post-peak correction occurs.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs See First $1B+ Exodus Since March; Truth Social Files for Own BTC Fund
Options Open Interest Climbs as Traders Prepare for Volatility
Recent metrics from Coinglass offer vital context for market participants assessing EGRAG’s Bitcoin cycle forecast, which predicts a possible rise to a peak of $175,000 before dipping to a low of $34,000. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin’s current open interest stands at $70.61 billion, slightly below its record high, indicating that market leverage remains elevated.
Volume has decreased by 7.34%, and $31.57 million worth of long positions have been liquidated in the last day. Moreover, increased open interest in options suggests that investors are positioning themselves for sudden price swings.
Source: Coinglass
The similarities with past cycle peaks show that high leverage and increased liquidations often occurred just before major highs and big drops. If Bitcoin follows past patterns, a final boost from leverage may carry it to EGRAG’s $175K target, while a sudden reversal leads prices down to the support at $34K. This suggests that market participants should prepare for significant fluctuations in either direction.
Can Bitcoin Sustain Momentum or Is a Correction Coming?
The area from around $100,000 to $110,000 is still critical in the market. According to EGRAG, Bitcoin could reach $175,000 if it breaks through the $120,000 mark. Nonetheless, the $34,000 estimate suggests that a correction may occur. The low inflation rate of only 5% between the current market cap and FDV further increases the pressure between buyers and sellers.
If ETF inflows continue and macroeconomic sentiment improves, Bitcoin could push toward the projected top. But rising profit-taking and cycle resistance levels suggest traders must remain cautious.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.
