Bitcoin might face more headwinds from U.S. payroll and unemployment reports today, but they won’t be anything compared to what’s already happening in the markets.
Markets were rocked earlier today when the Mt. Gox trustee transferred $2.7 billion worth of BTC out of a cold storage wallet. Although repayments to creditors haven’t started yet, the movement has still spooked investors.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price has rebounded slightly after sinking below $55,000 during Asia trading hours. Bitcoin is now trading above $55,400 again, but still down 3.8% compared to this time yesterday, according to Coingecko data.
But there’s some tepidly good news: The odds that the impending U.S. economic reports will rock markets is quite low, BRN analyst Valentin Fournier told Decrypt.
“Employment and non-farm payroll data are more indicative of how strong the U.S. economy is despite the higher rates rather than on inflation itself,” he said.
That means the inverse is true as well, he added. Investors shouldn’t expect a big bounce solely based on payroll or unemployment. But there might still be some knock-on effects, said Jag Kooner, Head of Derivatives at Bitfinex.
“If the NFP report shows weaker-than-expected job growth, it could increase expectations for future rate cuts, which might bolster Bitcoin prices as investors seek alternative assets in anticipation of a looser monetary policy,” he said. “Conversely, if the job market appears more resilient, Bitcoin might face downward pressure as the likelihood of near-term rate cuts diminishes.”
He added that Bitcoin ETFs could see a slight uptick if economic “if market participants believe that economic uncertainty will drive the Fed towards eventual rate cuts, enhancing the appeal of Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.”
Even then, Kooner noted that Bitcoin ETF flows have been underwhelming and haven’t showcased much “dip buying” from investors trying to score shares at a discount while Bitcoin experiences a correction.
What might be more telling for crypto investors than payroll or unemployment data is the Federal Reserve’s new monetary policy report, which is set to be released 11 a.m. EST—a few hours after the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ new data.
“Investors give more credit to [Core Price Index] and [Personal Consumption Expenditures],” Fournier wrote. “And the latest PCE, which was once again positive news for inflation had very little impact compared to Jerome Powell’s statement saying that we need strong and consistent proof of cooling inflation.”
