Cryptocurrency analytics firm Alphractal has released a statement explaining its decision to avoid buying Bitcoin even when the market is experiencing a downturn.
The company outlined three key reasons for its cautious approach, stating that it was important to wait for clearer market signals before making significant investments.
“ETF Inflows Do Not Drive Long-Term Growth”
Alphractal noted that the much-anticipated impact of Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) has been exaggerated in the short term. Citing historical data, the company noted that more than 1 million BTC were accumulated in a consolidation phase in 2022, but this did not translate into price increases. According to Alphractal, “Significant price rallies only occur when large investors actively intervene in the market.”
“Market Sentiment Rises Very Rapidly”
The firm also expressed concern about overly optimistic sentiment among investors who predict the Bitcoin price will reach $130,000 to $150,000. Alphractal argued that the market has not undergone a sufficient cooling period typically required after major corrections to form a sustainable uptrend. “Rapid rallies without deeper bearish sentiment often fail to set the stage for sustained trends,” the firm said.
“Fractal Patterns and Whale Behavior”
Alphractal noted similarities between current market patterns and those observed in December 2023, such as the formation and subsequent breakdown of a parallel channel. However, he also highlighted a key difference: whale behavior. Unlike past scenarios where whales aggressively defended critical price levels, their current inactivity casts doubt on the sustainability of recent price movements, according to the analytics firm.
While Alphractal admitted the possibility of buying Bitcoin at a higher price later, he firmly stated that now is not the time for him to buy. “It is essential to wait for clearer trend signals,” the firm said.
*This is not investment advice.
