After falling to $60,000 in early February, Bitcoin ($BTC) has been stuck in a narrow range. Fluctuating between approximately $63,000 and $74,000, $BTC has failed in its attempts to rise.
While it is still predicted that Bitcoin has not yet hit bottom, one analyst has claimed that Bitcoin’s parabolic rise may have come to an end.
Crypto analyst Omkar Godbole noted that Bitcoin has been hovering around $70,000 since early February, remaining well below its peak of $126,000 during the 2023-2025 bull market.
According to the analyst, the $70,000 level is very important for $BTC, as it was the peak of the 2019-2022 cycle. This signals that Bitcoin has retraced to its previous peak during the current bear market, indicating an unusual situation for $BTC.
Analysts who examined historical cycle data noted that Bitcoin never fell to its previous cycle peak during the 2014 and 2018 bear markets. The only exception was 2022, when the $BTC price dropped below its 2017 peak of $20,000.
“Even during long and challenging bear markets, the Bitcoin price has rarely returned to its previous bull market peaks.”
However, this situation seems to have changed; this indicates that Bitcoin and the market have matured and the era of uncontrolled, parabolic gains is over.”
Answering the question, “What makes this pullback unique?”, the analyst stated that there were no extreme triggers in this bear market, simply that the bear cycle was occurring naturally.
So Bitcoin has returned to its previous peak as a natural part of the bear market.
The analyst also argues that new bull cycles no longer feature parabolic jumps, making it more difficult for $BTC to surpass its previous peaks.
“Not every new bull market brings the parabolic gains of the past. It is becoming increasingly difficult to push prices far beyond previous peaks. This makes it more natural for prices to retrace to previous highs in bear markets.”
The analyst stated that this situation illustrates the classic principle of diminishing returns. In other words, the higher the Bitcoin price rises, the more capital is needed to push it even higher in the next bull run.
“The era when small entries triggered sharp jumps is largely over, and trends have become more stable and predictable.”
Looking at historical growth rates, this trend becomes evident: the 2013 peak was 38 times higher than the 2011 peak. The 2017 peak was 16 times higher than the 2013 peak. The 2021 peak was only 3 times higher than the 2017 peak. The final Bitcoin peak of $126,000 in 2025 was less than double the 2021 peak.
Although prices are still rising, the growth rate is steadily slowing down.
Finally, the analyst stated that previous highs are strong support levels for Bitcoin.
According to the analyst, previous highs often serve as strong support levels due to a behavioral concept called the anchor effect, where investors use previous peaks as a reference point. Investors who missed the initial rise tend to buy when prices return to a familiar range, which fuels the next rally.
Noting that the latest sell-off has stalled around $70,000, the analyst stated that a strong rebound from current levels could signal the end of the bear market.
*This is not investment advice.
