The ongoing US government shutdown is hampering policymakers’ efforts to analyze economic data, which could influence monetary policy.
Crypto markets and stocks tanked on Friday and over the weekend in reaction to Donald Trump’s latest salvo of tariffs on China. President Trump announced that he will impose an additional 100% tariff on goods from China, in addition to the 30% tariffs already in effect, starting Nov. 1 or sooner.
The crypto market selloff was more brutal due to the amount of leverage in derivatives markets that was flushed. However, crypto assets are in recovery mode this Monday morning as investors look to the week ahead. US stock market futures opened sharply higher as investors reacted to US-China de-escalation this weekend, according to the Kobeissi Letter.
Economic Events Oct. 13 to 17
Tuesday will see another speech from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, but with the current dearth of economic data, there are unlikely to be any clear signals for future policy changes.
Wednesday and Thursday will see the New York Fed Manufacturing Index and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index reports. These reports are monthly economic indicators derived from a survey of manufacturers in the respective states that assesses general business conditions.
New York and California are struggling economically, and if things worsen, “they could take the whole US economy down with them,” reported MarketWatch over the weekend.
Key Events This Week:
1. OPEC Monthly Report – Monday
2. Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Tuesday
3. NY Fed Manufacturing Index – Wednesday
4. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Thursday
5. NAHB Housing Market Index – Thursday
6. ~10% of S&P 500 Companies Report Earnings
The data…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 12, 2025
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The Q3 earnings season will officially open this week, with big banks and financial institutions including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and American Express all reporting revenue.
Crypto Markets Recover
Crypto market capitalization tanked to $3.3 trillion on Saturday morning, its lowest level since early July. However, it had recovered to reclaim $4 trillion during the Monday morning Asian trading session as Bitcoin, Ether, and many altcoins recovered strongly from the weekend rout.
A buildup of short positions before Trump’s tariff announcement caused the longs to get liquidated in the largest leverage flush in crypto history. Although this event was severe, these flashouts are now quite common in crypto markets due to the popularity of leverage perpetual swaps.
BTC was moving back towards $116,000 while Ether was closing in on $4,200 at the time of writing. Both assets were back in their range-bound channels.
