Bitcoin [$BTC] spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded flows of -$1.043B over the past three trading days, from the 5th to the 9th of November. The heavy selling pushed Bitcoin below its 50-week moving average, now at $75.2K.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index registered a fearful reading of 26. Over the past six weeks, Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings sold 13,597 Bitcoin at an average price of $81,039 per coin, raising $1.1B to fund its shift toward AI data centers.
Heavy liquidations added to pessimistic market expectations. According to Glassnode, trading volume for equities on Hyperliquid exceeded Bitcoin trading volume as traders rushed to buy the stock-market dip.
Short-term holder losses grow as exchange inflows decline
The Bitcoin short-term holder Spent Output Profit Loss (SOPR) stood at 0.99. Readings below 1 indicate that selling at a loss is dominant.
Analyst MAC_D also examined $BTC held at a loss using the Bitcoin Short-term Holder P&L to Exchanges indicator. On the 6th of November, 32,695 $BTC held at a loss by short-term holders flowed to exchanges.
That represented 89% of total short-term holder inflows to exchanges.
On the 9th of November, short-term holder inflows to exchanges at a loss fell to 9,900 $BTC, even as the price dropped from $75.7k to $74.8k.
In a CryptoQuant post, the analyst wrote that declining sell pressure after an increase in loss realization has historically pointed to a potential price rebound.
Bitcoin’s risk-reward profile improves as prices slide
The Bitcoin pullback has wiped out short-term holders’ profit cushion, crypto analyst DV Moreno wrote. The STH MVRV was below 1, and short-term holder NUPL dipped below zero, although unrealized losses were less severe than in February or June of this year.
The short-term Sharpe ratio fell into negative territory, signaling weak returns relative to recent volatility.
Earlier this month, Bitcoin briefly rallied above $80k before facing heavy selling pressure. The rejection underscored why the bear case remains relevant.
According to the analyst, deeper net unrealized losses and a Bitcoin price drop below $73k would strengthen the case for a continuation of the bear market.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin market participants have multiple reasons to be bearish, such as heavy liquidations, ETF flows, and institutional holders selling.
- Some signs, such as the STH P&L to exchange metric, signaled easing sell pressure and a potential rebound, but the bearish case is still relevant.
