U.S. headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose 0.4% in October, compared with expectations of 0.3%. The metric’s brisk rise for a third consecutive month signaled mounting underlying inflation pressure.
Inflation pressure came from high oil prices due to the conflict with Iran and import tariffs, along with robust household and business spending.
On Tuesday, November 10, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller raised the prospect of an interest rate hike of 50bps.
Unlike at the previous Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the debate is no longer about whether the Fed should pause or raise rates, but whether the December meeting will bring a 25 bps or 50 bps rate hike.
As a risk-on asset, Bitcoin and the wider crypto market are likely to see reduced capital inflows and lower demand. Retail pessimism was high, with debate over whether it is a good time to buy or remains too risky.
Current market conditions call for caution
Bitcoin’s drop below $80k toward the end of October, alongside negative apparent demand, was a warning of further losses. Shark accumulation while the leading crypto’s price stayed above $75k offered hope, but sellers ultimately won the battle.
An improving risk-to-reward profile for buyers was noted, but it was too early to jump in. A divergence between short-term holder P&L and flows to exchanges looked compelling, but has yet to produce a positive price reaction or a recovery in demand.
Meanwhile, institutional selling continued. AMBCrypto reported that 14 companies have sold 108,247 $BTC so far in 2026, worth around $8.08 billion. MARA Holdings was the biggest seller, offloading 40,581 $BTC worth $3.03 billion as it worked to pivot to operating AI/HPC data centers.
Since November 5, every $BTC spot ETF trading day has recorded outflows. At the time of writing, the total had reached $1.484 billion over the previous six ETF trading days.
Bitcoin’s short-term holder supply has grown relative to its long-term holder supply. AMBCrypto reported that this indicated greater price sensitivity to short-term price swings.
During August’s explosive rally above $80k, an imbalance, also known as a fair value gap (FVG), formed on the weekly chart between $65,391 and $76,670.
Bitcoin has already fallen into this imbalance
At the time of writing, the price was falling into this FVG. The midpoint, at $71,030, had also been breached. A weekly session close below the midpoint would confirm bearish strength.
For now, the sharp downward move could also be part of a leverage purge.
In just three months, the price has pulled back into a key demand zone on the weekly chart. The outlook on this timeframe remains bullish, and the pullback is still healthy. A session close below $64,133, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upswing to $87,395, would signal that the bullish woes were set to continue.
Bitcoin remains in a bullish market regime, resembling March 2023 conditions
The 6-month liquidation heatmap showed that liquidity clusters around $74k and $68k had been taken out. The next major liquidity pocket to watch was at $61.7k, with $64k-$65k also a region to monitor.
The price is likely to be pulled down toward these areas in the coming days or weeks.
The realized prices for different holder cohorts shown above indicated that short-term holders were mostly underwater. The 3-6 month cohort had a realized price of $65k, marking an important on-chain support level.
This level aligns with the liquidation heatmap and the weekly imbalance. Swing traders and investors should therefore be prepared for the possibility of a retest of this realized price level.
The adjusted MVRV metric uses both the 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios to capture short-term capital inflows and momentum, as well as to map the macro cost-basis trend.
The aMVRV was above the baseline, signaling a crossover into a bull market phase. Bitcoin’s market regime has therefore moved beyond early bull territory and is now bullish.
The steep price pullback in recent weeks resembled the move from $25,250 to $19,549 in March 2023. At that time, the market remained in a bullish phase despite the sharp setback.
Data shows that bearish market pressure should not be taken lightly. At the same time, Bitcoin could recover if it holds above $64k-$65k.
Such a hold would likely involve a consolidation phase, followed by a slowdown in loss-selling and short-term holder panic. If these conditions are met, along with others such as ETF capital inflows signaling a recovery in sentiment, investors could have more confidence in a return to a bull market.
Final Summary
- Rising institutional and retail selling, short-term holder sensitivity, and cascading liquidations have pushed Bitcoin below $73k and into a higher timeframe imbalance.
- This foray into the thinly traded pocket was still within a bull market phase. Buyers must defend the $65k zone to keep the bull thesis alive.
