Ethereum has had one of the sharpest declines during the recent market correction, which cost Ether losing almost a third of its value in a matter of days.
While the Bitcoin price has regained most of its value since the March peak, Ether is still in trouble to recover from the recent flash crash.
Could this be the story of Ethereum in 2024? Or perhaps there is a chance the Ethereum price will rebound before the end of this year, following BTC’s footsteps?
Ethereum price history
Ethereum’s journey began in August 2015, with its price under $1 for most of that year. By March 2016, Ether reached $10, and in 2017, it surged to $100, ending the year at $774. In early 2018, Ether crossed $1,000 before the 2018 crypto crash dropped its value below $100.
From 2019 to 2021, Ethereum rallied again, reaching an all-time high of $4,815 in November 2021. After a dip in early 2022, Ether began rising in 2023, hitting $2,500 by January.
Amid a major bull run, Ethereum peaked at $4,000 in March 2023, but corrections in April and June brought it down to $3,600 before a flash crash erased $1,000 from its value.
From 2019 to 2021, Ether once again continued to rally and reached its highest price of $4,815 on Nov. 9, 2021.
For the first half of 2022, Ether dipped in value. In 2023, the ETH price was steadily rising all throughout the year, finishing at $2,500 price levels in the beginning of January.
During this year’s biggest crypto bull run amid the Bitcoin ETF buzz, Ethereum was among the most successful cryptocurrencies. At peak levels in March, the ETH price reached $4,000.
A major crypto market correction followed in April, then a somewhat milder correction in June. As the Ethereum price stabilized at $3,600, a flash crash arrived, erasing $1,000 off its value.
Current situation
With over $500 billion lost (14.5%), the crypto market has seen the biggest crash in a year.
ETH fell as much as 21% to set a swing low at $2,112 on Aug. 5 before recovering to the current price of $2,651. Ether’s rally to $2,750 on Aug. 12 ran into stiff resistance from the supplier congestion zone at $2,800.
Last week, the crypto market has been on the path to recovery. As the Bitcoin price reached $63,000 on Friday, the overall crypto market cap has regained $2.1 trillion.
Despite all the trouble, Ethereum (ETH) whales have started a huge buying spree on Friday, which could potentially mean they are buying the dip in large transactions.
Gas fees
Another potential trouble for Ether can come from network validators.
Ethereum is facing trouble as gas fees, the main income for network validators, have dropped sharply. This decline threatens validators’ financial incentives, risking an exodus that could undermine the network’s stability.
While gas fees usually rise during high demand, the recent drop likely reflects reduced network usage, raising concerns about Ethereum’s long-term security and reliability.
Record ETF inflows
This past week, Ethereum ETF products recorded positive inflows for three consecutive days, pulling in $10.8 million, $24.3 million and $5.0 million, respectively.
However, after the record inflow three-day streak, ETH ETF once again saw a net outflow. On Friday, Ethereum ETFs experienced their largest outflow since Aug. 2, with $39.2 million exiting the market.
So far, Ethereum ETFs have been widely regarded as disappointing in regard to the ETH price. If inflows return, it could potentially mean a reversal trend for the Ethereum price.
Price prediction
A long-term crypto forecast needs to be aligned with large Bitcoin cycles, which define the trend for the crypto market in general.
These cycles are usually defined by halving events. As the BTC price recovers from a correction happening around the halving, the Ethereum price follows the trend.
Historically, Bitcoin prices have surged following halving events. After the first halving in 2012, the price skyrocketed from $12 to $126 within six months. Similarly, following the second halving in 2016, Bitcoin’s price surged from $654 to $1,000 within seven months.
In 2020, after the third halving, the price surged from $8,570 to $18,040 in the same time period.
As Bitcoin has enough space to grow to $70,000 and beyond, it is fair to assume that another bull run for BTC is possible by the end of the year.
As of now, Ethereum is traded at approximately $2,600. This could be a crucial moment for Ether, defining its future for the next few months.
According to trader Peter Brandt, another crash awaits Ethereum in the near future.
Brandt’s outlook suggests the completion of a five-month rectangle pattern and the emergence of a rising wedge formation on the intraday chart, which he believes could push ETH’s price down to $1,625.
Ether $ETH
I am posting this not as a slam on ETH, even though I’m not a fan, but to describe how I trade – so ETHernuts, dont take offense. I am as quick to go long on a good pattern as short on a good pattern
1. 5-mo rectangle (my fav pattern) completed Aug 4
2. Retest of BO… pic.twitter.com/h89EAzP7cb— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) August 14, 2024
However, Brandt also cautions that these patterns may not always play out as expected, acknowledging that market movements can be unpredictable.
If this prediction plays out, it is likely that the Ethereum price will end 2024 below $2,000 — similar to what happened in 2022.
