On Good Friday, President Trump posted a victory lap on Truth Social. 186,000 private sector jobs added in March. Trade deficit down 52%.
“An enormously powerful engine of Economic Growth,” he wrote.
Crypto analyst Lark Davis isn’t buying it.
“Trump’s post is half-truth, half-spin,” he wrote on X.
Yes, March jobs were a rebound – about 178K overall, 186K private sector. But February lost 133,000 jobs. The three-month average sits at just 68K per month. The gains were concentrated in healthcare and construction, and manufacturing didn’t roar back.
The trade deficit figure sounds dramatic until you remember last year’s baseline was inflated by companies front-loading imports ahead of tariff announcements.
The Jobs Number Didn’t Move Retail Into Crypto
While Trump is celebrating the economy, Bitcoin retail participation hit its lowest level since 2017.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost flagged the data this week: shrimp inflows, wallets moving less than 1 $BTC to Binance, have dropped to a 30-day moving average of just 332 $BTC – which is the lowest reading since Binance launched. Darkfost describes it as a structural decline, not a temporary dip.
CryptoTice put it plainly: “Retail has never been this absent from crypto. Record low activity. Sentiment destroyed. Nobody wants to talk about Bitcoin anymore.”
Also Read: Altcoins are Dying, But Not All of Them: Easter Weekend Crypto Watchlist
Where Did Retail Actually Go?
They didn’t disappear from markets entirely, but they rotated. Some retail investors, according to Darkfost, may have moved into equities and commodities, both of which have delivered stronger performances in the current macro environment.
A March 2026 survey of 2,660 retail investors by Finimize found planned crypto allocations had fallen to 21%, down from 29.5% the previous quarter. ETFs and commodities both rose.
“Retail investors aren’t retreating from volatility,” said Finimize CEO Carl Hazeley. “They’re moving into mainstream assets like equities, ETFs and commodities.
Bitcoin is trading at $66,931 today. The S&P 500 is down 4.30% year to date but still drawing retail interest. Crypto is not.
History Says This Silence Has a Pattern
CryptoTice isn’t bearish about it.
“Every single generational buying opportunity in Bitcoin history looked identical to this,” he wrote. “The tourists are gone. The speculators are gone. The noise is gone. What’s left is exactly what was left in 2019. Exactly what was left in 2022.”
Trump’s jobs number tells one story about the economy. Bitcoin’s on-chain data tells another about where regular people are putting their money right now.
Both can’t be right for long.
