Markets stayed quiet Monday morning, with stocks, crypto, and gold barely moving while Treasury yields ticked slightly lower.
Investors are holding back across the board as they wait for a high-level trade meeting between the United States and China taking place in London today.
The stall comes at the start of a week packed with economic events and fresh inflation data. According to CNBC, the tension in markets is tied directly to what traders expect—or don’t expect—to come out of this sit-down.
By early morning, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped by 1 basis point to 4.50%. The 2-year Treasury yield dropped 3 basis points to 4.01%, and the 30-year yield stayed locked at 4.97%. In the bond market, yields and prices move in opposite directions. A basis point is 0.01%, and even small moves like these matter when markets are this sensitive.
Asian markets climbed during overnight trading hours, as investors tracked the upcoming U.S.-China meeting while processing China’s latest trade and inflation figures.
In the U.S., equity futures reflected none of that optimism. S&P 500 futures pulled back about 0.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures slid 0.2%, and Dow Jones futures fell 45 points, or 0.1%. Those declines followed two strong weeks for all three indexes.
S&P 500 sits near record, but traders remain cautious
Last week, all three major indexes ended higher for the second week in a row. The S&P 500 broke above 6,000 for the first time since February 21, now sitting less than 3% away from its all-time closing high. But instead of pushing further, traders are pausing.
Chris Verrone, chief market strategist at Strategas, spoke on CNBC’s Closing Bell Friday about the shift. “The message of the market is still one that is largely pretty constructive here,” Chris said, pointing to the S&P 500’s recent three-month high.
He added that cyclical stocks continue to perform better than defensive sectors, despite weaker economic data. “I know the data on balance has been softer, but the market’s saying ignore it. Cyclicals making new highs versus defensives says, ‘Hey, the economy’s largely OK here.’”
Meanwhile across the pond, futures data from IG suggests London’s FTSE will open 7 points higher at 8,836, Germany’s DAX up 3 points at 24,296, France’s CAC 40 up 5 points at 7,801 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 13 points higher at 40,595.
Inflation numbers and apple conference crowd the week
Meanwhile, the rest of the week is loaded with major events. On Monday, Apple launches its 2025 Worldwide Developers Conference. Apple’s stock is down more than 18% since the start of the year, and analysts will be watching closely to see if the company brings anything to revive investor interest.
Midweek, the consumer price index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday, followed by the producer price index (PPI) on Friday. Both data sets will offer insight into how current tariff levels might be impacting prices across the economy. On top of that, consumer sentiment numbers from the University of Michigan also drop Friday, and they’ll include information on inflation expectations.
Gold prices were mostly flat Monday morning. Spot gold nudged up 0.1%, reaching $3,313.54 an ounce as of 0543 GMT, while U.S. gold futures slipped 0.4% to $3,333.80. Market watchers say investors are holding off from major trades until the London meeting gives some direction. On the technical side, gold may test support at $3,296, and if that level breaks, it could fall as low as $3,262, based on analysis from Wang Tao, a Reuters technical analyst.
Bitcoin didn’t do much either. It held above $105,000, gaining just 0.1% over the past 24 hours to trade at $105,616 by press time. Like everything else in the market today, it’s just waiting.
