Smart Money Trap On The Monthly Chart As Foundation Sells Another 10,000 ETH

Bitcoin captured liquidity above the February monthly range high in April. $ETH ran toward $2,500, failed to close above the same level, and returned to range. That divergence is the most important thing happening on the $ETH chart right now, and it sits underneath a daily setup that has not managed a close above the Bollinger midline since late April.

$ETH Daily Chart: Below The Midline, SAR Still Pointing Down

The Bollinger midline at $2,324 has been in resistance since the late April rejection from $2,408. Price at $2,302 is below it, and the SAR at $2,403 sits higher, both indicators aligned bearish on the daily. The lower band at $2,240 is the next meaningful support, with a close below it opening the $2,000 February cycle low.

The upper band at $2,408 lines up with the April rejection high. Clearing the SAR at $2,403 and the upper band simultaneously would flip the daily setup bullish, but $ETH has not managed that since February.

Key levels for May 3:

• Bollinger lower band: $2,240
• Current price: $2,302
• Bollinger midline: $2,324
• SAR resistance: $2,403
• Bollinger upper band: $2,408
• February range high: $2,475
• Monthly range support: $1,747

What The Monthly Chart Actually Shows

The monthly candle chart is where the bearish case lives. Bitcoin broke above its February monthly range high in April and closed within it, confirming the liquidity grab. $ETH pushed toward $2,500, failed to close above the February range high, and ended the month back inside the range. In Smart Money terms, buyers who expected a breakout got trapped, price ran to where they entered and reversed without follow-through.

That divergence between BTC and $ETH on the monthly is not a short-term noise signal. It reflects weaker underlying demand for $ETH at current levels and increases the probability that any May recovery attempt faces the same rejection near $2,475.

Ethereum Foundation’s Third OTC Sale In Two Months

The Ethereum Foundation sold another 10,000 $ETH to BitMine on May 2 at $2,292 each, totaling $22.9M. The April 24 sale was another 10,000 $ETH at $2,387, and the first in March was 5,000 $ETH at $2,043. Across the three transactions, the Foundation has sold 25,000 $ETH worth roughly $55M.

The Foundation described the sales as treasury management, with proceeds directed toward protocol research, grants, and operations. The community response was pointed. Users publicly asked why $46M was needed in two weeks and whether developers accept $ETH directly as payment.

BitMine now holds 4.5 million $ETH worth over $10B, 3.8% of total supply, and leads in staking volume with over 4 million $ETH deployed. Despite that, the firm reported a $3.82B net loss in Q1 2026. Repeated Foundation OTC sales into a price below $2,400 add consistent sell pressure at exactly the level $ETH needs to hold for any recovery to develop.

$ETH Derivatives: Shorts Taking More Pain Despite Bearish Setup

Futures volume rose 11.74% to $31.84B while OI held flat at $30.83B. Options volume gained 6.13% to $657.74M with options OI up 1.21% to $6.19B, measured positioning rather than directional conviction.

The long/short ratio sits at 1.0117. Top traders on Binance and OKX both lean long above 1.27. Over 24 hours, shorts absorbed $25.57M in liquidations against $16.82M for longs, sellers taking more pain despite price sitting below both the midline and SAR. OI at $30.53B sits well below the late 2025 peak near $70B.

$ETH Price Prediction: May 3 Outlook

• Upside: $ETH closes above the Bollinger midline at $2,324 and reclaims the SAR at $2,403, targeting the February range high at $2,475. Shorts absorbing more liquidations supports the near-term bid.
• Downside: $ETH stays below the midline and Foundation OTC selling keeps pressure on price toward the lower band at $2,240. Losing $2,240 puts the $2,000 February low back in view. The monthly Smart Money divergence from Bitcoin is the bigger picture risk if May opens with continued risk-off sentiment.