Shanghai’s benchmark index surged to its highest close in a decade on Monday, as Chinese investors piled into energy, gold, and defense stocks in the wake of the Iran conflict — further underscoring why Chinese capital continues to flow away from crypto markets.
The rally, combined with Beijing’s tightening grip on domestic liquidity ahead of this week’s National People’s Congress, narrows the already slim chances that Chinese capital will find its way into crypto anytime soon.
A Tale of Two Markets
The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.5% at 4,182.6 points on March 2, its highest since June 2015, even as most Asian markets buckled under geopolitical pressure. China’s blue-chip CSI300 gained 0.4%.
The rally was driven by a surge in energy and safe-haven plays. Shares of CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec all climbed sharply after oil prices posted their biggest jump in four years. An index tracking Chinese gold stocks soared 7%, while defense names also advanced. Shipping stocks, including Nanjing Tanker and COSCO Shipping, hit their daily 10% limit up.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong — the only regulated gateway for Chinese investors seeking crypto ETF exposure — told a different story. The Hang Seng Index dropped more than 2% to a two-month low, with tech, healthcare, and tourism among the hardest-hit sectors. Hong Kong-listed crypto ETFs fell across the board, with ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF (3042.HK) down 2%, Bosera HashKey Bitcoin ETF (3008.HK) off 2.3%, and Harvest Bitcoin Spot ETF (3439.HK) losing 2.4%. Ether ETFs also declined.
Why This Matters for Crypto
The divergence between Shanghai and Hong Kong highlights a structural problem for crypto adoption among Chinese capital pools.
Mainland Chinese investors remain barred from directly accessing Hong Kong’s spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Potential pathways — including the QDII program and the Cross-boundary Wealth Management Connect scheme in the Greater Bay Area — have been discussed by industry figures and legal experts, but none have materialized into concrete policy action. A January 2025 expansion of the GBA wealth connect scheme raised hopes, but stopped short of explicitly including crypto products.
With Shanghai equities rallying — buoyed by expectations of policy support ahead of the National People’s Congress, which opens March 5 — there is even less incentive for Chinese capital to seek alternative assets like crypto.
Beijing has a long track record of propping up onshore markets during external crises. Hong Kong, open to global capital flows, typically absorbs the blow. Monday was a textbook example. The same geopolitical shock that lifted Shanghai’s energy and defense names sent the Hang Seng into retreat. Crypto ETFs went down with it. If the conflict escalates further, gold is likely to remain the preferred safe haven for Chinese investors, while Bitcoin faces additional downside pressure.
The $NPC Factor
Beijing’s annual parliamentary meeting this week adds another layer to the equation. The $NPC is expected to set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%–5% and outline the 15th Five-Year Plan, with emphasis on domestic demand, tech self-reliance, and consumption stimulus.
This policy backdrop reinforces the narrative that Beijing wants capital to circulate within its own financial ecosystem — in A-shares, government bonds, and state-directed investment vehicles — rather than flow offshore into volatile assets.
Historically, geopolitical shocks have had a limited shelf life on Chinese A-shares. Beijing’s policy toolkit — from state fund purchases to trading curbs — is designed to insulate onshore markets from external volatility, and the pre-$NPC window only strengthens that impulse.
For crypto, those fundamentals point in the wrong direction. The onshore equity market is performing, policy support is coming, and Beijing’s capital controls remain firmly in place.
Bitcoin Caught in the Crossfire
Bitcoin itself has struggled to act as a safe haven during the Iran conflict. After dropping to $63,000 on Saturday following the US-Israel strikes, BTC briefly recovered above $68,000 on reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei’s death before settling around $66,000 — roughly where it traded before the strikes began.
Global crypto fund outflows have now extended to five consecutive weeks, with cumulative withdrawals reaching $4 billion, according to CoinShares data. The most recent week alone saw $288 million in redemptions, while trading volumes fell to $17 billion, the lowest since July 2025. Bitcoin is down 23% year-to-date and has fallen roughly 48% from its all-time high of $126,000 set in October 2025.
With Chinese equities absorbing domestic liquidity, Hong Kong markets under pressure, and crypto acting more like a risk asset than digital gold, the prospect of meaningful Chinese capital inflows into crypto appears increasingly remote — at least for now.
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