In recent statements, FED Board Member Adriana Kugler said that inflation currently poses a greater risk than weak employment.
Kugler stated that the impact of customs duties on prices has not yet been fully seen, and said, “Inflation will be the primary effect, other effects will emerge over time.” Kugler said that the inflation experience during the pandemic period still has an impact on expectations, and noted that inflation resulting from customs duties may not be a one-time effect.
“My focus right now is inflation. Once the tariffs are fully in place, we can start talking about other impacts, but that hasn’t happened yet,” Kugler said.
Kugler also noted that the tax regulation that came into effect during the term of President Donald Trump may not have a contractionary effect in general, but rather a demand-stimulating effect, which could put pressure on prices.
Kugler also touched on the labor market, noting that unemployment is still at historically low levels, and that the decrease in immigrant inflows could further tighten the labor market. Kugler said that these effects could begin to be felt in some sectors towards the end of the year, and that it was too early to expect large-scale job losses due to artificial intelligence.
On the other hand, US Trade Secretary Lutnick reminded that the July 9 deadline for trade agreements remains valid.
*This is not investment advice.
