Global M2 combines cash, checking accounts and savings deposits across the largest economies, including the US, the eurozone, China and Japan, converted into US dollars.
Fast Money Growth Has Not Meant Big Gains
- When global money grew more than 5% a year, Bitcoin was a median 6% higher one year later and rose in only half of those weeks.
- When growth was slower, the median one-year gain was about 85%.
- Money growth peaked above 20% in spring 2021, and Bitcoin topped later that year.
The Signal That Worked
Comparing money growth with its pace three months earlier produced a clearer pattern. When growth was accelerating, Bitcoin was higher three months later in about 70% of cases, with a median gain near 20%. When growth was slowing, $BTC rose only four times in ten, with a small median loss. The pattern held from 2014 to 2019 and again from 2020 onward.
This year’s results are mixed. The signal was positive from November to March, yet Bitcoin fell from about $106,000 to $71,000. It turned negative in late March, ahead of the early-July low near $59,000, and flipped positive in mid-August with $BTC near $63,000. The price has gained almost 30% since.
Why The Current Reading Looks Fragile
- Annual money growth has eased from about 8% to 7% since late August.
- Global M2 has slipped almost 1% since its early-September peak.
- A 2.5% jump in the first week of August, one of the two largest weekly moves since 2014, is the only reason the signal is still positive.
- The dollar index has risen about 3% since early September, which shrinks the dollar value of euro and yuan balances.
The research ties part of the dollar’s strength to a September Federal Reserve rate hike to 3.75% to 4%, described as the first since 2023. The Fed’s balance sheet has grown by about $220 billion since December. If money growth holds near 7%, the signal is projected to turn negative around mid-November.
Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch
- Micro support: $80,371 to $81,638, which held through the weekend
- Resistance: $82,400, then $84,134
- Deeper support: the 50-week simple moving average near $76,800
The near-term outlook points to lower or sideways trading, with room for a brief bounce. A bullish long-term scenario projects a $165,000 to $300,000 zone. The leading scenario, however, treats the July rally as a counter-trend bounce within a broader correction.
