It’s worth noting that unlike traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets cover far more than sports — Kalshi and Polymarket both carry contracts on political elections, economic data and even reality TV shows like Love Island. U.S. legal sportsbooks, meanwhile, are projected to handle between $2.8 billion and $4.3 billion across the tournament’s 104 matches. Kalshi’s World Cup-specific markets alone generated $7.4 billion in June before the group rounds were complete.
The ban that wasn’t
The more striking figure is not the $10.8 billion on Polymarket’s international exchange; it is where $571 million of it came from.
According to onchain analysis firm Allium, U.S.-linked wallets traded $571 million on Polymarket’s political markets over the past year, more than any other country, ahead of Hong Kong’s $422 million. This requires some explanation, because Polymarket’s relationship with American users in 2026 is no longer a simple ban.
Polymarket was fined $1.4 million by the CFTC in 2022 for operating unregistered event-based derivatives and agreed to stop serving U.S. customers at the time, though U.S.-based users were able to access the platform using virtual private networks. Then in late 2025 it came back. The company acquired a CFTC-licensed exchange for $112 million, received an Amended Order of Designation from the regulator in November, and launched a U.S. iOS app in December. The waitlist was removed in May 2026. Americans can now use Polymarket legally.
