Prediction markets are betting that Hormuz will stay choked for longer, even after Washington and Tehran extended their ceasefire.
Traders on Kalshi moved the odds lower for a quick return to normal shipping after both sides said very little about the one thing the market actually cares about: whether Iran will reopen the strait and whether the U.S. will stop blocking it with naval force.
On Kalshi, bettors give Hormuz normal traffic just a 42% chance by June 1. The odds improve to 59% by July 1 and 61% by Aug. 1. Polymarket paints a similar picture. Bettors there give the strait a 45% chance of returning to normal by the end of May and a 67% chance by the end of June.
Both platforms use the same standard. They define normal flows as the seven-day moving average of transit calls through the strait, based on IMF PortWatch data.
Markets push reopening bets further out as ship traffic stays far below normal
Actual traffic through Hormuz is still nowhere close to prewar levels. On Wednesday, only eight ships crossed the strait, including three oil tankers, based on LSEG data. Before the war, the route usually handled more than 100 ships a day.
The same day, Iran said it had seized two ships that tried to pass through without permission. That mattered because the markets were already watching whether ship counts would recover after the ceasefire extension. They did not.
In a Thursday note, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, UBS chief investment officer for the Americas, wrote that reopening the strait “remains elusive.” She pointed to comments from Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker, who said the strait would not reopen while the U.S. naval blockade stays in place.
Hoffmann-Burchardi wrote, “These developments point to the challenges of resolving the conflict and reopening the Strait to allow for a normalization of energy flows and production.” She added, “A prolonged period of elevated energy prices may weigh more heavily on growth.”
Iran seizes ships, Trump escalates threats, and oil climbs back above $100
The military standoff kept getting louder on Thursday. Trump said he would “shoot and kill” any boat laying mines in the strait. At the same time, Brent crude climbed back above $100 per barrel. Iran then put out a fresh video meant to show its grip on the route.
State television aired footage of masked commandos storming the MSC Francesca, a large cargo ship. The video showed troops in a gray speedboat pulling alongside the vessel, climbing a rope ladder to a side door in the hull, and jumping in with rifles.
The broadcast also showed another ship, the Epaminondas. Iran said both vessels were captured on Wednesday after trying to cross without permits.
Washington also widened its own action at sea. The U.S. said it had boarded another tanker, the Majestic, in the Indian Ocean on Thursday. The tanker appeared to match a supertanker last reported off Sri Lanka carrying 2 million barrels of crude.
Iran has, in effect, shut the Strait to ships other than its own since the United States and Israel launched the war in February. Since peace talks collapsed on Tuesday, just hours before a two-week ceasefire expired, Iran has appeared to hold control over the waterway.
There is still diplomacy in the background, but it comes with conditions. A senior Iranian source told Reuters on Thursday that Iran could consider attending a meeting in Pakistan, but only if the U.S. blockade is lifted and seized Iranian ships are released.
Earlier that morning, Trump posted that the U.S. Navy had full control of the strait. He wrote, “We have total control over the Strait of Hormuz. No ship can enter or leave without the approval of the United States Navy. It is ‘Sealed up Tight,’ until such time as Iran is able to make a DEAL!!!”
