A recent report published by the cryptocurrency analysis platform CryptoQuant points to a notable divergence in the Bitcoin market.
According to the analysis, Bitcoin demand has contracted internally due to sales by both individual investors and large wallet holders, resulting in a significant mismatch between market sentiment and capital flows.
The report noted that despite the Fear and Greed Index hovering in the 8-14 range, indicating “extreme fear,” net inflows of over $1 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs occurred in March. However, the Coinbase Premium Index, reflecting US-based institutional demand, remained in negative territory, suggesting limited participation from US investors. The volatility stemming from geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Iran, led to a “wait-and-see” approach in the markets, suggesting that the sell-offs were not panic-driven but rather a gradual weakening of demand.
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Although the Bitcoin price has fallen approximately 47% from its peak of $126,000 recorded in October 2025, it has been noted that this decline has been more limited compared to the sharp drop exceeding 85% in past cycles. Analyst Zack Wainwright stated that this indicates the Bitcoin market is gradually maturing and volatility is decreasing over time.
Among the potential catalysts that could support the market in the coming period, Morgan Stanley’s approval of a low-fee Bitcoin ETF stands out. This development is said to provide access to approximately $6.2 trillion in assets through 16,000 financial advisors. Furthermore, Strategy’s continued purchase of approximately 44,000 BTC per month through its preferred equity product is considered a significant factor that could provide a steady flow of demand to the market.
Short-term technical indicators suggest that if geopolitical tensions ease, Bitcoin’s price has the potential to recover towards the $71,500–$81,200 range.
*This is not investment advice.
