The Polymarket bets on US presidential elections tracked the rumors about Joe Biden leaving the run today. In the afternoon, the odds of Kamala Harris winning the election reached 18%, two times the odds favorable to Biden. Additionally, over $11 million was directed to betting on Harris.
As reported by Reuters, there was a rumor about Biden not running for his second mandate as US president, and Harris was the “top choice” to replace him. However, a few hours later, the Democrats representative told the press that he is running.
Consequently, the odds of Biden winning the election at Polymarket presidential bets reached 14%, still 1% short of Harris’ odds.
She doesn’t know it yet…
But the Kamala For President campaign has officially begun. pic.twitter.com/TYK9mxdF5a
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) July 3, 2024
Notably, Donald Trump stays comfortably ahead on the Polygon-based prediction market, with the odds of Trump winning the election reaching 61% at the time of writing. The total amount of bets on this outcome has surpassed $26 million.
However, the odds at Polymarket likely don’t reflect the actual voters’ sentiment, as highlighted by Anastasija Plotnikova, CEO and co-founder of Fideum. In insights shared with Crypto Briefing, Plotnikova pointed out the fact that crypto-native users are biased, and crypto isn’t “a top priority for all voters when electing candidates.”
“Again, we should avoid creating echo chambers where only agreeable opinions are seen and heard,” she added.
Nevertheless, the relation between Polymarket’s presidential bets and the news surrounding the run is at least interesting. In June, the prediction market surpassed $100 million for the first time since its inception, reaching over 29,000 monthly active users.
