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A crypto company plots a US public listing (yes, again). And one wading deeper into the space is likely to benefit from an “index effect” that boosts visibility and demand.
This is a follow-up of sorts to the crypto public listing update I wrote last week. That was after American Bitcoin shares hit the Nasdaq and Gemini took another step toward its IPO.
I also compared Coinbase and Robinhood, noting the latter company was potentially set to join the S&P 500. We found out Friday that HOOD will indeed become part of that index on Sept. 22 — joining COIN, which was added in May. The former stock saw a boost on the news.
Robinhood’s crypto transaction revenue was $160 million in Q2 — making up ~30% of the company’s $539 million in overall transaction revenue. That $160 million figure was down ~37% from Q1 crypto revenue, but marked a 98% year-over-year increase.
Robinhood has doubled down on crypto this year, launching stock tokens in Europe and crypto staking to eligible US customers. It also closed its acquisition of Bitstamp and even shared plans for a layer-2 blockchain.
So investors with capital in an S&P 500 fund will soon be exposed to both COIN and HOOD automatically. But those still looking to choose between them may consider what Blockworks Research analyst Marc Arjoon called the “beta vs. balance” trade-off.
“Coinbase offers superior upside convexity to crypto cycles but with materially higher earnings volatility,” he wrote in an Aug. 29 report. “Robinhood’s improving, more repeatable EBITDA supports a higher quality multiple.”
Despite speculation that Michael Saylor’s Strategy could also be added to the S&P 500, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin was left out of the index for now. Strategy’s market cap of $93 billion is ~4x above the S&P 500 minimum of $22.7 billion, making it one of the biggest companies not in the index.
The omission says less about Strategy’s business and more about the index committee’s evolving comfort level with bitcoin-centric corporate models, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer argued in a Monday research note. The company, after all, logged a profitable second quarter — the last criteria it required for S&P 500 inclusion.
“But the index is not a purely rules-based club,” Palmer added. “The committee explicitly reserves judgment to maintain sector balance and index representativeness such that a company can ‘check all the boxes’ and still find itself waiting for a slot.”
