The prediction market sector is caught between an escalating legal battle and commercial enthusiasm.
As state courts expanded enforcement beyond retail apps to clearing, platforms continued to post record volumes, while the CFTC played the unusual dual role of industry protector and internal prosecutor.
Louisiana Extends Restrictions to Brokers and Clearing Firms
On November 12, a Louisiana court ordered ten prediction market operators to block users in the state, including Kalshi, Polymarket US and Robinhood. The order goes beyond the apps: the operators may not broker, clear or settle event contracts for anyone in Louisiana.
New platforms are also entering the market through partnerships. Canadian sports prediction market company Prospect Markets launched in the US as an introducing broker using Crypto.com’s infrastructure.
A day earlier, Underdog, which operates its own CFTC-registered exchange, agreed to make its contracts available through Plaee. Plaee’s clients will be able to offer those contracts under their own brands without registering as an exchange.
Crypto.com and Underdog are both among the operators named in Louisiana’s order.
The CFTC Is Fighting a Two-Front War
The CFTC continues to fight the states in court. On November 12, the agency and the United States sued Arkansas to halt its case against Kalshi, arguing that the contracts are governed by federal derivatives law.
The agency is also scrutinising Kalshi. Politico and Reuters reported that the CFTC had privately warned the company it could face charges over how it notified the agency about new contracts.
Kalshi told CNBC that the issue was a procedural error involving a handful of contracts, many of which were not live.
Kalshi Eyes $65B Valuation Leap
DeFi Rate recorded about $30.4 billion in notional volume across nine venues from November 7 to 12, with Kalshi accounting for roughly 78% of the total.
A person familiar with the matter told Reuters on November 12 that Kalshi was discussing new funding at a $65 billion valuation. That would be $25 billion above the $40 billion post-money valuation of its Series G two weeks earlier.
Polymarket reported revenue growth and job cuts in the same week. On November 10, it told CNBC that its annualised revenue had topped $1.8 billion, up from more than $1 billion in June. The figure is the company’s own run rate, not full-year revenue.
The following day, Polymarket confirmed it had cut jobs and ended contractor agreements. It said the reorganisation followed leadership changes and also involved new hires.
