According to sources, the calculation is based on roughly 1.5 million expected absences multiplied by an average annual worker contribution to GDP of about $70,000, implying a loss of nearly 2% of that day’s productivity.
However, the estimate is not based on a fully published study with a detailed, publicly available methodology. Montalvo’s original comments instead focused on trends among young men and technology workers, making the projected $1 billion productivity loss an estimate rather than a confirmed economic impact.
How 1.5 Million Workers Taking Time Off Could Impact US Businesses
Rather than causing a widespread economic downturn, GTA 6’s release could affect businesses in several ways. Absence projections could cluster among young men aged 18 to 30 and workers in technology and remote or hybrid jobs, where flexible schedules may make taking leave easier.
Technology companies may experience major employee shortages on that day, which could result in postponed software deployments, extended IT support response times, and halted projects. Sources indicate that some workers have already booked vacation for the release date, and some employers have reportedly considered the launch when planning year-end holidays.
According to BambooHR data, paid time-off (PTO) requests for November 19 are tracking 9% to 17% higher than historical averages. However, a greater operational concern could be unplanned absences. Managers who reject PTO requests based on staffing could face the risk of last-minute sick leave, also known as the GTA Flu, when teams are scurrying to fill last-minute shifts.
Could GTA 6 Gaming Revenue Offset the $1B Productivity Loss?
In several ways, increased consumer spending could offset some of the projected productivity losses. The U.S.-based parent company of Rockstar Games, Take-Two Interactive, has projected net bookings of $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion in fiscal 2027, with GTA 6 playing a significant role.
The company also expects operating cash flow to exceed $1 billion for the year. Meanwhile, gaming analytics firm Newzoo projects GTA 6 could generate between $3.25 billion and $5.2 billion in global sales by the end of its launch week.
Retailers, game publishers, and related businesses could benefit from consumer spending on GTA 6, including game purchases, digital downloads, and merchandise. However, these sales would not automatically offset productivity losses, as spending gains and lost economic output measure different things.
However, the overall economic effect is still uncertain. A temporary decline in workplace productivity could coincide with increased gaming revenue and consumer spending, but the two cannot be directly compared to determine a net economic gain or loss. Even if the projected $1 billion loss materializes, its scale would remain relatively small compared with the broader U.S. economy.
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