Democrat Ruben Gallego won the Arizona Senate seat defeating Republican Kari Lake. While Democrats lost control of the Senate in the 2024 election, Gallego’s win stemmed some of the losses.
Republicans will control 53 seats for at least the next two years, having flipped Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana and West Virginia last week. The crypto-focused super political action committee, Fairshake, was heavily involved in the Ohio race in particular, supporting Republican Bernie Moreno to the tune of $40 million.
Gallego, a congressman from the Grand Canyon State, voted in favor of the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act and a resolution overturning the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Staff Accounting Bulletin 121. Fairshake gave him $10 million in support, as well as fellow Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who won Michigan’s Senate race. Both prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as polling, projected he would win the race.
The House of Representatives still has 16 races left to call, as of 05:30 UTC Tuesday (12:30 ET). Republicans have already won 214, leaving them just four seats shy of the majority for another Congressional term. Democrats have won 205 seats so far, and Republicans are still favored to win control of the body. With the Senate and Donald Trump’s win in the presidential race, Republicans are poised to have control of a unified government.
Fairshake supported 56 candidates in the House and Senate races, largely in primaries in safe districts, meaning ones where the primarywinner would likely win their general election race as well. California’s Senate race, where Fairshake dropped millions in opposition to Democrat Katie Porter, is one such example. Through last Friday, this theory was largely borne out, as the PAC’s preferred candidates won the first 48 of those races to be called.
As of press time, this record appears to be slipping a little bit, with Democrat Yadira Caraveo and Republican Mike Garcia both conceding their races – though AP has yet to call either. Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer are also trailing, though Republicans Michelle Steel, David Valadao and Juan Ciscomani are currently leading against their opponents.
