Key Insights:
- Long-term ETH price holders increased wallets by 22%, lowering cost basis despite unrealized losses.
- Ethereum nears breakout zone with RSI neutral, volume rising, and Bollinger Bands tightening.
- Options volume surges 75% as traders position long ahead of Pectra upgrade and market movement.
A clear shift in Ethereum (ETH) on-chain behavior has emerged over the past two months. Data from CryptoQuant showed that long-term ETH holders—defined by addresses that steadily receive ETH without major selling—boosted their holdings from 15.53 million ETH on March 10 to 19.03 million ETH by May 3.
This marks a 22.54% increase in holdings during a period of price weakness. This activity came as Ethereum dropped below the average entry price of many of these wallets.
Source: X
As of March 10, ETH was trading at $1,866.70, as the realized price of acquiring wallets was around what was about $2,026. Rather, these wallets simply continued to accumulate, bringing down their average cost basis to $1,980 as of May 3 instead of decreasing exposure.
ETH Accumulation Holds Strong Despite Losses
The price of Ethereum has been under pressure since it peaked at $4,107 in December 2024. Since then, ETH has trended downward month after month with the correction that followed. However, the rise of holdings from long-term addresses signals that they are not acting based on short-term price action.
These coins are used in these wallets, and they are kept by them for more than 155 days. They have consistently behaved: added more ETH, and they have not sold.
“Behavior reflects structural conviction & clear expectations of short-term appreciation,” said @oro_crypto, referencing the data tracked in CryptoQuant’s accumulation metrics.
ETH Price Levels Tighten, Traders Watch for Price Breakout
Ethereum is now trading in a narrow zone between $1,783 and $1,831. The Bollinger Bands are tightening, and the price is hovering just below a resistance level at $1,941. The 20-day moving average, sitting at $1,739, continues to provide support.
Source: TradingView
Market momentum remained neutral. The RSI was at 54.63, just under its trend line of 55.50 at press time. These numbers showed that ETH was neither overbought nor oversold. At the same time, volume has grown since mid-April, meaning that larger moves are on the way as attention increases.
Derivatives Market Suggests Bullish Expectations
Derivatives activity around Ethereum has picked up. Total trading volume rose 26.51% to $46.3 billion, while open interest saw a smaller rise of 1.13%, now at $21.9 billion. In the options market, volume jumped nearly 75% to $357.69 million, showing that traders are preparing for price volatility.
Shorts were outnumbered by long positions on major exchanges. When writing, the long-to-short ratio on Binance was 2.24, and on OKX, it was 2.04.
Additionally, the ratio was higher among Binance’s top trader accounts at 2.76. This implied that most traders were still betting on what could happen, that of a rise as opposed to a decline.
Source: Coinglass
Liquidations over the last 24 hours amounted to $40.67 million, with $8.10 million off that as a short position. Though long liquidations were higher in general, losing short liquidations in multiple time frames suggested upward pressure.
Chart watchers have noticed a tightening pattern in price action. According to analyst called Thecryptomist, Ethereum was forming an ascending triangle, and price movement inside a smaller wedge could soon trigger a breakout.
“$1950 remains programmed next,” Thecryptomist noted, identifying it as a key level to watch.
Ethereum Upgrade Draws Market Attention to ETH Price
The Ethereum network is set for an upgrade on May 7 called Pectra. There is one notable change, and it is that the validator staking limit is going to be raised from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH. In addition, it will increase the number of data blobs per block, which may improve throughput and efficiency.
There is building investor attention ahead of the upgrade. “Buying $ETH now is like buying BTC at $4,000,” said analyst @TedPillows, who pointed to Ethereum’s growing use in real-world asset tokenization and its rising institutional interest.
Consequently, the increase in long-term accumulation, derivatives activity, and upcoming protocol changes all suggest that Ethereum is approaching a crucial period.
