Ethereum still needs to reclaim $2,500 and then break above $3,100 before bulls regain control. Meanwhile, a breakdown in oil has added another $ETH rebound argument, with one analyst pointing to a possible move back above $4,000 if the inverse setup holds.
Ethereum Price Needs Two Breakouts Before Bulls Regain Control
Ethereum must reclaim two major weekly moving averages before its chart turns bullish, according to analyst Ali Charts on X.
The analyst said $ETH needs to move back above the 200-week SMA at $2,500 and then break cleanly above the 50-week SMA at $3,100.
Ethereum Weekly Chart. Source: Ali Charts on X
The weekly chart shows Ethereum trading below both major moving averages. That keeps $ETH under pressure, even after its recent rebound from lower support.
The first key trigger is the 200-week SMA near $2,500. A move above that level would show that buyers are starting to regain control of the longer-term trend.
However, Ali Charts said Ethereum would still need a second confirmation. The next trigger is a clean breakout above the 50-week SMA near $3,100.
That level sits closer to the next major resistance area on the chart. If $ETH clears it, the structure would look stronger and could shift attention toward the higher resistance near $3,335.
The chart also marks a larger upside level near $4,868, which lines up with the previous cycle high area. $ETH would need to clear several resistance zones before that level becomes relevant again.
On the downside, the chart shows support near $1,562, with a deeper level marked around $1,069. These areas remain important if Ethereum fails to reclaim the weekly moving averages.
For now, the chart shows Ethereum still below its main bullish triggers. The next major test is whether $ETH can break above $2,500 first, then build enough strength to challenge $3,100.
Oil Breakdown Chart Points to $ETH Rebound Setup, Analyst Says
WTI crude oil has broken below a diamond top pattern, and analyst Sky says the move could act as an inverse signal for Ethereum.
The chart shared on X shows oil falling out of a consolidation structure after failing to hold the lower trendline. Sky said crude oil could move toward the $60s, while $ETH could head back above $4,000 if the inverse setup plays out.
WTI Crude Oil Chart. Source: Sky on X
The daily chart shows oil forming a diamond pattern after a strong rally from the low $50s to the $110–$120 area. Price then moved sideways inside the structure before breaking below its lower boundary.
That breakdown matters because diamond tops often mark a loss of momentum after a major upside move. In this case, the break pushed oil below the pattern and away from the moving average cluster near the $98–$100 area.
Sky said the oil breakdown remains an inverse indicator for Ethereum. Under that view, weaker oil prices could align with a stronger $ETH move.
The chart marks a lower target area in the $60s. That zone sits far below the breakdown point and represents the next major downside target on the oil chart.
The analyst also said $ETH could move back above $4,000 if oil continues toward that target. However, the $ETH move depends on follow-through in both markets, not only the first breakdown signal.
Sky also pointed to the red moving average line near the broken structure. He said he would add more BMNR if oil retests that line.
For now, the oil chart shows a confirmed break below the diamond structure. The next test is whether crude oil continues lower or retests the former support zone as resistance.
