Despite Ethereum ($ETH) price plunging by more than 20% so far in the fourth quarter of 2026, historical data suggest potential further upside by the end of the year.

As of November 10, the average fourth-quarter return of Ethereum since its inception is about 16.8%, while the median is approximately 6.29%.

With Ethereum price having closed the third quarter of 2026 at $2,684, the average and median targets for the fourth quarter are $3,134.91 and $2,852.82, respectively, according to data from CryptoRank.

Ethereum quarterly returns (USD). Source: CryptoRank

With $ETH trading at $2,126 at the time of writing, the historical average fourth-quarter return indicates a potential 47% upside. Meanwhile, the historical median return for the fourth quarter signals a possible 34% rally over the next 51 days.

Worth noting that Ethereum’s 70.9% uptick during the third quarter of 2026 was the highest since it was created. As a result, if the past returns are a strong indicator of future performance, $ETH price is well poised to gain bullish momentum in the remaining part of the year.

Ethereum price performance today

Over the past 30 days, $ETH price has declined by more than 15%, thereby increasing fear of further selloff. The altcoin had a market capitalization of approximately $259.85 billion at the time of reporting, with its 24-hour average trading volume up 132% to $15.2 billion.

$ETH performance on November 10, source: CoinMarketCap

Even though the crypto asset has experienced sustained selling pressure over the past 30 days, historical analysis suggests a possible bull run in the coming few weeks.

Such a bullish sentiment could be bolstered by renewed demand for United States spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) amid a broader crypto bullish outlook led by Bitcoin (BTC). Moreover, $ETH remains at the helm of real-world asset tokenization due to regulatory clarity in the United States.