Ethereum price continues to trade in a sideways structure that reflects a gradual decline rather than stability. $ETH has struggled to generate sustained upside momentum. The exit of new participants has weighed on sentiment, even as some long-term metrics show early signs of improvement.
This divergence creates a mixed outlook for Ethereum. While network growth has weakened, improving holder retention offers a counterbalance.
Ethereum New Holders Dip
Ethereum has seen a sharp decline in new addresses over the past several days. Daily new addresses fell nearly 36% within 48 hours, dropping from 298,000 to 191,000. This contraction pushed Ethereum’s Network Growth metric to a two-month low.
The slowdown has persisted since the beginning of the month. Fewer new participants reduce organic demand. Weak onboarding also signals hesitation among retail investors. This trend has added pressure to $ETH price performance and contributed to cautious market sentiment.
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Ethereum New Addresses. Source: Santiment
The Ethereum Holder Retention Rate provides deeper context that even though new holders are declining, the ones that are staying are staying for good. This metric tracks the percentage of addresses maintaining a balance across consecutive 30-day periods. It measures whether holders continue to retain $ETH rather than exit positions.
The retention rate recently fell to 92.4%, marking a 4.5-year low and the weakest reading since September 2021. This decline confirmed wavering conviction among newer holders.
However, the metric has begun to improve modestly, suggesting renewed stability among participants. Rising retention can strengthen structural support if sustained.
Ethereum Holder Retention Rate. Source: Glassnode
$ETH Price Shows Potential To Bounce Back
Ethereum is trading at $1,904 at the time of writing, holding above the $1,816 support level. While price action appears flat, a descending resistance line indicates a slow downtrend. Without stronger demand, $ETH remains vulnerable to continued weakness.
The Chaikin Money Flow indicator offers cautious optimism. CMF has shifted into positive territory after a gradual uptrend. This movement signals improving capital inflows. Transitioning from outflows to inflows is essential for any sustained Ethereum price recovery.
$ETH CMF”>
$ETH CMF. Source: TradingView
If inflows continue and support holds, Ethereum could rebound from $1,816 and attempt a move toward $2,165. A breakout above this resistance would invalidate the current downtrend line. Such a shift would likely restore investor confidence and reinforce bullish momentum.
$ETH Price Analysis. “>
$ETH Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
However, failure to maintain positive capital flow would undermine this outlook. A breakdown below $1,816 would invalidate the recovery thesis. In that scenario, Ethereum price could slide toward $1,600, increasing downside risk and reinforcing bearish control across the broader crypto market.
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