Amid the recent implementation of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” policies, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has plummeted to its lowest level since mid-October 2024. This signaled a turbulent time for the greenback.
Despite the downturn, some analysts believe the weakening dollar could fuel short-term gains for Bitcoin (BTC).
Could Bitcoin Benefit From a Weaker Dollar?
The DXY, a key measure of the US dollar’s strength against a basket of major currencies, has been under pressure amid a combination of factors. Growing concerns over a potential recession and escalating global trade tensions have contributed to this downtrend.
After reaching a two-year high in early January, the DXY has experienced a steady decline. Furthermore, it has shed nearly 4% in the first quarter alone.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Performance. Source: TradingView
Economist Peter Schiff highlighted the dire state of the DXY in the latest X (formerly Twitter) post.
“The US Dollar Index has fallen to its lowest level since Oct. and looks like it’s headed much lower,” he wrote.
Schiff emphasized that contrary to expectations that a strong US dollar might alleviate the impact of tariffs on American consumers, the reality of a weakening dollar will have the opposite effect. Therefore, this exacerbates the financial strain from tariffs, making them more burdensome for consumers.
BeInCrypto reported that on April 2, 2025, President Trump implemented the new “Liberation Day” tariffs. These reciprocal tariffs enforce a minimum 10% duty on all imports. Nonetheless, they have raised concerns about a potential global trade war and further weakened the dollar’s value.
A Reuters report highlighted that the dollar slid against the yen. Meanwhile, the euro gained 0.3% to trade at $1.08, reflecting market unease over the tariff announcement.
However, it’s not all bad news—at least not for crypto. Some market observers believe Bitcoin could emerge as a key beneficiary of the dollar’s woes.
Ciara Sun, Founder and Managing Partner at C² Ventures noted on X that the likelihood of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 is growing. This move could further weaken the DXY and boost Bitcoin’s attractiveness.
“The Dollar Index shows signs of slowing momentum, potentially favoring risk assets,” Sun remarked.
Sun’s analysis aligns with the inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar, as outlined in a CoinGecko report from late 2024.
“When the dollar weakens, Bitcoin often strengthens, making it an attractive alternative,” the report noted.
Bitcoin and US Dollar Index Correlation. Source: CoinGecko
Adding to the bullish sentiment for Bitcoin, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, predicted a significant rally for the cryptocurrency.
“If BTC can hold $76,500 between now and US tax day April 15, then we are out of the woods. Don’t get chopped up!,” Hayes claimed.
This statement follows the executive’s prediction that Bitcoin could soar to $250,000 by year-end. However, this outcome is contingent upon the Federal Reserve adopting Quantitative Easing (QE) to support the markets.
Still, the road ahead is far from clear. Bitcoin may enjoy short-term gains amid the dollar’s slump. Yet, the overarching economic implications of shifting US monetary policy and ongoing global tensions continue to pose significant risks.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto
As of now, Bitcoin has felt the impact of the market uncertainty. It declined 1.5% in the past day to a trading value of $83,389. Similarly, the broader cryptocurrency marked has experienced a decrease, with the total market capitalization falling 3.4% within the same timeframe.
