According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US inflation declined marginally in April, coming in below the expected value. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month, against the projected 0.3%. On a year-on-year basis, the inflation also went against economists’ forecasts, from the projected CPI of 2.4% to 2.3%, indicating a less inflationary scenario than previously imagined.
The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in April(MoM). However, the year-on-year core CPI remained steady at 2.8%, higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. These numbers have renewed calls for the Fed to lower interest rates, a move that could support assets such as Bitcoin and altcoins. Bitcoin and Ethereum, which trade at $103,693 and $2,548, respectively, maintained their position after the announcement of the data.
The cryptocurrency market was little affected following the announcements, with the total market capitalization remaining at $3.3 trillion. Analysts often view Bitcoin’s performance as a reflection of the broader market’s volatility. With calming trade tensions, investors are trying to find hints concerning the future of interest rates and their influence on the crypto market.
The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, has kept the rates the same; however, it warned that with the introduction of tariffs, inflation can rise. In the statements made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the bank would observe the effects of the tariffs before making any decisions. The stance of the central bank on inflation and tariffs continues to shape market sentiment, especially for assets such as bitcoin, which prospers in a lower-interest landscape.
Impact of Inflation on Rate Cuts
Wall Street experts had indicated that rate cut expectations have lowered in recent times. Economist Jim Bianco pointed out that the chances of a June rate reduction are now at only 8%. The odds for a July cut now stand at 35%, while those of a September rate cut have lowered from 100% to 66%.
If inflation drops further and tariffs are eliminated, a rate cut can occur as early as July. Bitcoin has historically performed well when the interest rate was lowered or a rate cut was anticipated, as seen during the pandemic, and again in 2023.
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