Circle Is Minting Billions in USDC While Crypto Recovers

Bitcoin is up 7.3% on the week, trading at $73,238. Ethereum has climbed 12.34% in seven days. The Fear and Greed Index, which was deep in Extreme Fear territory just weeks ago, has recovered to 39.

Something is shifting, and the stablecoin market may have seen it coming.

The Dry Powder Thesis

Since the start of February, Circle has minted over $8 billion in $USDC, pushing total circulation above $78 billion even as crypto markets were at their weakest.

Blockchain intelligence firm Arkham flagged the on-chain activity on X, asking pointedly whether that kind of minting is normal for a bear market. Their on-chain data shows where this supply is actually sitting: 66% of circulating $USDC is on Ethereum, with 10.7% on Solana equating to $8.4 billion, and further chunks spread across Ethereum Layer 2s including Base at 5.5% and Arbitrum at 2.7%.

That distribution matters because it shows capital parked across the most active trading and DeFi networks, not withdrawn from the ecosystem.

In traditional finance, this is called dry powder: capital held in reserve, ready to deploy the moment conditions shift.

$USDC Is Winning the Stablecoin Race

Within that broader story, $USDC has overtaken Tether’s $USDT in adjusted transaction volume for the first time since 2019. Adjusted volume strips out automated transfers and internal movements to give a cleaner read on real economic activity. On that measure, Mizuho reports $USDC recorded roughly $2.2 trillion year-to-date against $USDT’s $1.3 trillion, a 64% share.

Mizuho raised its Circle price target to $120 on the back of the data. Bernstein went further at $190, citing $USDC’s supply resilience through the crypto downturn as a structural signal rather than a short-term move. The regulated stablecoin is gaining serious ground.

Also Read: Why Is Tether $USDT Supply Crashing? Biggest Monthly Drop Since FTX as $USDC Surges

Why the Scale of This Matters

Stablecoins processed $33 trillion in transactions in 2025, matching Visa’s annual volume. In Nigeria, 59% of crypto users hold $USDT as a dollar savings account against a weakening local currency. The same pattern runs through Argentina, Colombia and the Philippines. This capital base is deep, global and increasingly looking for somewhere to go.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has projected the stablecoin market reaches $3 trillion by 2030. With crypto sentiment recovering and stablecoin market cap crossing over $300 billion, the infrastructure carrying the next wave of capital is building steadily.