Tom Lee’s Ethereum conviction heading into Q3 is starting to look like a well-timed move.
For context, BitMine Immersion recently added another 42,197 $ETH, taking its holdings to more than 5.74 million $ETH.
On the other hand, Michael Saylor’s Strategy sold 3,588 $BTC, setting up an interesting $ETH vs. $BTC treasury debate as Q3 gets underway.
Notably, this debate isn’t just playing out on social media.
As the chart below shows, the $ETH/$BTC ratio has opened Q3 with a nearly 5% rally after three straight losing quarters. That suggests $ETH is beginning to regain relative strength against $BTC, supporting Tom Lee’s decision to keep accumulating Ethereum.
However, Tom Lee’s conviction isn’t based on hope alone.
In a recent post on X, BitMine said the improving odds of the CLARITY Act are the main reason behind its growing $ETH position.
According to the company, prediction markets now put the odds of the CLARITY Act passing at around 50%, the highest level in two weeks. BitMine argues that regulatory clarity would be a major catalyst for Ethereum, as smart contract platforms become more integrated into everyday finance.
So, from BitMine’s perspective, the recent rise in the $ETH/$BTC ratio simply reflects the market assigning a higher probability to the CLARITY Act becoming law.
Naturally, the bigger question now is whether that repricing has further to run. Can $ETH continue outperforming $BTC through the rest of Q3, or is BMNR’s bullish Ethereum [$ETH] thesis getting ahead of the fundamentals?
Can Ethereum stay ahead as Bitcoin regains momentum?
BitMine’s $ETH accumulation is built around Ethereum’s long-term DeFi story.
But the on-chain data suggests that the narrative hasn’t fully played out yet.
According to DeFiLlama, Ethereum’s DeFi activity remains well below previous highs. Total value locked (TVL) is still under $40 billion, compared with around $89-90 billion before the October correction.
At the same time, Ethereum has started Q3 with its stablecoin supply down by more than $5 billion from roughly $160 billion at the end of June.
In other words, the market is pricing in the CLARITY Act before Ethereum’s on-chain fundamentals have caught up.
Adding to the challenge, BlackRock has resumed buying Bitcoin, recording more than $209 million in net inflows after 11 straight days of selling. The move signals renewed confidence in $BTC at a time when $ETH’s on-chain fundamentals are still lagging.
Against this backdrop, Tom Lee’s $ETH thesis looks increasingly ambitious.
Despite Strategy selling $BTC, Bitcoin has continued to hold around $64k, suggesting BlackRock’s buying was enough to absorb the supply. That leaves the $ETH vs. $BTC treasury debate finely balanced, with Ethereum backed by policy optimism while Bitcoin continues to benefit from strong institutional demand.
As a result, the edge still leans toward Bitcoin.
$ETH/$BTC has rallied on CLARITY “expectation”, but Ethereum’s on-chain activity hasn’t followed through. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is seeing fresh institutional inflows. Unless Ethereum’s DeFi metrics begin to recover, sustaining $ETH/$BTC’s early Q3 momentum could prove difficult.
Final Summary
- $ETH/$BTC is rallying on CLARITY Act optimism, but Ethereum’s DeFi activity hasn’t caught up yet.
- BlackRock is buying $BTC again, giving Bitcoin stronger support and making it harder for $ETH/$BTC to keep outperforming in Q3.
