The 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $76,869 and $75,810 are still rising beneath price, which keeps the broader trend intact. RSI at 46.85 sits below the neutral 50 mark and under its own average of 52.88, so momentum has leaned lower since early October.
$BTC Support and Resistance Levels, October 17, 2026
Bitcoin ETFs Post a Second Straight Weekly Outflow
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $82.39M on October 16, led by BlackRock’s IBIT at $71.78M and Fidelity’s FBTC at $10.61M according to SoSoValue. That pushed the latest weekly flow to a $228.58M outflow, following $681.10M the week before.
The two weeks before that brought inflows of $241.09M and $2.39B, so the trend turned from heavy buying to net selling within a fortnight.
Benjamin Cowen Calls This a Decision Point for Bitcoin
Benjamin Cowen of Into the Cryptoverse said in a video that Bitcoin is close to a decision point and is unlikely to stay in the low $80,000s much longer.
In his view, $BTC either prints a new local high above $87,000 soon or the breakout proves false and the technical case behind it falls apart. He framed both outcomes as competing cases rather than a firm forecast.
- Bull case: $BTC formed a golden cross, still holds above its 50-day average and sits above the 50-week average, so the pullback can be read as a normal retest of the prior high.
- Bear case: On-chain gauges such as the MVRV Z-score, which compares market value with what holders paid, have not reset the way they did at past bottoms. The Fed is also raising rates rather than cutting as it did in 2019, and Cowen cited an 85% market-implied chance of a hike in October.
- Key level: Losing $83,000 on the weekly chart would lead many traders to question the breakout, and he expects an unwind to be fast rather than gradual. His advice is to “respect the closes.”
- Month-end test: If the 50-day average holds, he expects new local highs before the end of October. If it fails, he sees a quick move back toward the bottom of the range.
- Timing: In his cycle chart, the last two cycle lows came on days 1,432 and 1,436 after the prior low, and $BTC was on day 1,425 when he recorded the video. Any low in line with past cycles would therefore come within about 11 days, and one that fails to appear by the end of October would count as another point for the bulls.
Ash Crypto Expects a Late-October Short Squeeze
Market dumps for the most of October.
Everyone believes Uptober is cancelled.
Multiple FUD hits the market at once.
Bears call for new lows.
Shorts pile up fast.
Then Around the end of October, once weak hands are shaken out, Pumptober finally starts.
Bitcoin…
— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) October 16, 2026
Trader Ash Crypto said in a post on X that Bitcoin could stay weak for most of October, with bearish calls for new lows and short positions building up. He expects a rally he calls Pumptober to start near month-end once weaker holders have sold.
In his scenario, rising prices would force short sellers to buy back their positions, known as a short squeeze, and that buying would lift Ethereum and altcoins even higher, though he gave no price targets.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bullish and Bearish Scenarios for Next Week and Month-End
Bullish Case, Target: $87,000
$BTC reclaims the 20-day EMA at $82,648, which sits close to the broken trendline, and then clears $84,000. That would reopen the $87,000 high, the retest Cowen expects before month-end if the 50-day holds. Ash Crypto’s late-October squeeze scenario would fit this path.
Bearish Case, Risk Level: $76,869 (100-Day EMA)
$BTC closes below the 50-day EMA at $80,428, which would confirm the break of the rising trendline. That would expose the 100-day EMA at $76,869, with the 200-day at $75,810 next, and Cowen expects a fast move down in that case rather than a slow grind.
Bitcoin Price Prediction FAQs
$BTC could extend toward $82,648 and then $87,000 if it holds above $80,428. Losing that level risks a slide toward the 100-day EMA at $76,869.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a second straight weekly outflow of $228.58M after $681.10M the week before, according to SoSoValue, with $82.39M leaving on October 16.
The 50-day EMA at $80,428 is the key support, the 20-day EMA at $82,648 is the first resistance, and analyst Benjamin Cowen also watches $83,000 on the weekly chart. A move above the $87,000 high would signal a new local high.
Trader Ash Crypto has outlined a late-October short squeeze scenario, but it is one view without supporting data. Cowen says the outcome depends on whether the 50-day average holds, with new highs before month-end if it does and a quick drop if it does not.
