While Bitcoin struggles below $60,000, a Bybit report shared with BeInCrypto suggests that the BTC rally might still have momentum. The report delineates bull runs retrospectively and forecasts the potential continuation of Bitcoin’s price rise.
Bybit’s analysis divides Bitcoin’s historical performance into distinct cycles, visualized on a logarithmic scale to clarify long-term trends. According to its criteria, a bull run spans from the lowest trough to the highest peak of each cycle.
The 2024 Bitcoin Bull Cycle Still Has Room For Growth
Notably, three major bullish phases have been identified: 2012-2014, 2015-2018, and 2019-2022. The current bull cycle began in late 2022 and is ongoing.
This cycle commenced when Bitcoin rebounded from the post-FTX low of $15,800 in November 2022. To date, BTC has marked 624 days in this bull run, reaching a peak of $73,000 in March 2024, representing over a fourfold increase from its trough.
Although remarkable, this gain is modest compared to the 20x increase in the previous 2019-2022 cycle. Nonetheless, the average duration of past cycles—956 days—suggests there could be roughly 350 days left for potential growth.
Read more: Bitcoin Halving Cycles and Investment Strategies: What To Know
Bitcoin Historical Bull Runs Comparison. Source: Bybit
However, there is concern over the decreasing returns from each successive bull run, which saw returns diminish from an extraordinary 553x in the first cycle to 20x in the third. This pattern prompts questions about the future of exponential gains in Bitcoin’s value.
Nonetheless, a report from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin whales remain committed to holding their assets. The Accumulation Trend Score (ATS), which assesses weighted balance changes across the market, recently achieved its maximum value of 1.0. Consequently, this demonstrates a shift towards predominant accumulation behavior among investors.
Moreover, long-term holders (LTH) have notably shifted their strategy from selling near peaks to maintaining their investments. Over the past three months, this group has increased its holdings by more than 374,000 BTC. This shift has led to a stabilization and even growth in the percentage of network wealth controlled by LTHs.
Read more: Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2024?
Bitcoin Total Supply Held by Long-Term Holders. Source: Glassnode
Despite the significant pressure to sell from these long-term investors at the market’s peak, the amount of wealth they retain is historically high. This observation highlights their resilience and hints at the potential for further price appreciation if market conditions improve.
Additionally, in an interview with BeInCrypto, Juan Pellicer, Senior Researcher at IntoTheBlock, revealed that institutional investors are highly interested in accumulating Bitcoin.
“If institutions see Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation or as part of their diversification strategy, their buying pressure could offset any sell-offs and even bolster the confidence of long-term holders,” Pellicer told BeInCrypto.
