By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
While bitcoin
While the second- and third-largest cryptocurrencies have outpaced their larger rival in the past seven and 30 days, it’s worth noting BTC has climbed more than 40% in the past three months and hit a new record high. Market participants are betting the party isn’t over yet, the derivatives market shows.
Bitcoin’s options market now carries a $2.36 billion wager the price will clear $140,000, data from Deribit shows. That single strike price holds the most open interest on the exchange, double the OI of the busiest put option, or bet on a decline.
Ether options show a similar pattern. The $4,000 call leads with $651 million in open interest, and another $280 million is targeting $6,000. The data shows how heavily the market is tilting bullish even after ETH surged more than 125% in just three months.
As the prices rise, the money flows in. Spot bitcoin ETFs have already brought in $5.41 billion this month, the most since November 2024, when President Donald Trump was elected on a pro-crypto platform. Spot ether ETFs saw net inflows of $2.88 billion, the highest since August 2024, SoSoValue data shows. As an aside, to underpin the altcoin narrative, net inflows into the ether ETFs beat those for bitcoin ETFs yesterday.
To Boris Alergant, the head of institutional partnerships at Babylon Labs, these flows underscore “the shift from speculative retail to long-term institutional allocation.”
The regulatory environment is part of the story. The GENIUS Act, expected to be signed into law later today, tightens rules for yield-bearing stablecoins. The law is seen as nudging treasurers toward native ETH staking and transparent restaking vaults.
Robinson Burkey, co-founder of the Wormhole Foundation, told CoinDesk the GENIUS act, along with the Clarity Act are the “first meaningful answers” to the crypto market’s requests for rules that won’t stifle innovation.
Trump is also expected to sign an executive order in the near future opening up 401K plans to investments beyond stocks and bonds. That would open the $9 trillion U.S. retirement market to cryptocurrency, gold and other investments.
“It’s plausible that the meaningful progression of legislative matters could be the catalyst for unlocking further participation from risk-averse capital that has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for regulatory certainty,” Babylon Labs’ Alergant told CoinDesk.
“When you combine structural demand, tightening BTC supply post-halving, and a potentially favorable policy backdrop, the setup for this market remains incredibly strong.”
Still, bitcoin’s share of the market has been dropping this month and the broad CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index is up 32% this month, outperforming the bitcoin-heavy CoinDesk 5 (CD5), which rose 17% in the same period. Bitcoin dominance, which measures bitcoin’s weighting in what is now a more than $4 trillion market cap, has dropped to 61.7% from 65.5% on June 30.
“The infrastructure has matured, stablecoins are proven, liquidity is deeper, and execution is faster, making this cycle feel more durable than past rallies.” Sei Labs co-founder Jeff Feng told CoinDesk “It’s a pivotal moment for on-chain finance to prove its staying power.” Stay alert!
What to Watch
- Crypto
- July 18: Lorenzo Protocol, a Cosmos-based blockchain with native token BANK, launches USD1+ OTF on BNB Chain’s mainnet. The institutional-grade on-chain traded fund lets users stake stablecoins to mint sUSD1+ tokens that earn stable, NAV-backed yield from real-world assets, CeFi quantitative strategies and DeFi protocols. All returns are settled in USD1 stablecoin, issued by World Liberty Financial, whose stablecoin infrastructure powers the product’s stable yield mechanism.
- July 18, 2:30 p.m.: President Trump is expected to sign the GENIUS Act into law at a White House ceremony, enacting the first major U.S. federal stablecoin regulatory framework following House passage during Crypto Week.
- Macro
- July 18, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (Preliminary) July U.S. consumer sentiment data.
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment Est. 61.5 vs. Prev. 60.7
- July 21, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases June producer price inflation data.
- PPI MoM Prev. -0.5%
- PPI YoY Prev. 1.2%
- Aug. 1, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. tariffs take effect on imports from trade partners that failed to reach agreements by the July 9 deadline. These increased duties could range from 10% to as high as 70%, impacting a wide range of goods.
- July 18, 10 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases (Preliminary) July U.S. consumer sentiment data.
-
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- July 23: Tesla (TSLA), post-market, $0.42
- July 29: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.29
- July 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.30
- July 31: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.35
- July 31: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.19
- Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Aavegotchi DAO is voting on a $245,000 funding proposal to expand Gotchi Battler into a revenue-generating game with PvE modes, NFTs and battle passes, aiming to reverse declining player numbers, boost GHST utility and create sustainable rewards. Voting ends July 22.
- Ethereum Name Service DAO is voting on a proposal from Tally to enter a one-year renewable agreement to enhance ENS governance. Voting ends July 22.
- Rocket Pool DAO is voting to finalize Saturn 1’s implementation. Approval by a 75% supermajority will ratify key protocol changes, including new transaction designs and a potential revenue share to the pDAO treasury. Voting ends July 24.
- NEAR Protocol is voting on potentially reducing NEAR’s inflation from 5% to 2.5%. Two-thirds of validators must approval the proposal for it to pass, and if so it could be implemented by late Q3. Voting ends Aug. 1.
- July 29, 10 a.m.: Ether.fi to host a bi-quarterly analyst call.
- Unlocks
- July 20: LayerZero to unlock 23.13% of its circulating supply worth $60.41 million.
- July 25: Venom to unlock 2.84% of its circulating supply worth $12.88 million.
- July 31: Optimism to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $24.16 million.
- Aug. 1: Sui to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $178.18 million.
- Aug. 2: Ethena to unlock 0.64% of its circulating supply worth $16.77 million.
- Token Launches
- July 18: Pump.fun’s PUMP to be listed on OKX.
- July 18: Trusta.AI (TA) to be listed on Binance Alpha, BingX, and others.
Conferences
The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17.
- July 20: Crypto Coin Day 7/20 (Atlanta)
- July 21-22: Malaysia Blockchain Week 2025 (Kuala Lumpur)
- July 24: Decasonic’s Web3 Investor Day 2025 (Chicago)
- July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay)
- July 28-29: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore)
- Aug. 6-7: Blockchain.Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
- Aug. 6-10: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
- Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
- Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
- Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
- Shiba Inu lead Shytoshi Kusama has internally released a 36-page, AI-focused whitepaper titled “The ShibPaper,” teasing a new evolution for the SHIB ecosystem.
- While the full document isn’t public, insiders suggest it outlines how AI will integrate into the projects roadmap, potentially reshaping infrastructure, governance and user engagement.
- Marketing head Lucie called it “a new season or a whole new show,” playfully branding it SHIB City: The AI Utopia.
- The release triggered a 3,615% spike in SHIB’s burn rate, with 6.3 million tokens destroyed in 24 hours, including a 5.8 million token burn in a single transaction.
- The sudden jump in burnings comes despite the weekly burn rate being down 97%, suggesting renewed community interest tied to the whitepaper buzz.
- With AI tailwinds and rising burn activity, SHIB appears to be positioning itself for a new narrative cycle in the memecoin world.
Derivatives Positioning
- Open interest (OI) across top derivatives venues remains close to all time highs
- According to Velo, BTC OI currently sits at $32.2 billion, just shy of the record $33 billion hit earlier in the week. Binance still leads the market with $13.7 billion open interest, followed by Bybit at $8.4 billion.
- BTC three-month annualized basis is starting to rise and is currently at 8%. That’s still some way off the Q4 2024 highs of around 15%.
- In terms of perpetual volumes, ETH exceeded BTC for a second consecutive day at $167.7 billion vs. $111.4 billion, according to Coinglass data.
- BTC put and call contracts stand at 325,000, with BTC calls accounting for more than 60% of the total for the second consecutive day, according to Velo. Open interest for BTC options is at an all time high of $51.67 billion, Coinglass data show.
- ETH has 2.62 million call and put contracts with 69% being calls. At $12 billion, ETH open interest is starting to pick up, but is still below the all-time high of $14.76 billion from March 2024, as per Coinglass data.
- Funding rate APRs across perpetual swaps have started to pick up, according to Velo data. BTC annualized funding on Hyperliquid has jumped to around 52%, up from 10% yesterday. ETH surged to 90% from 10% yesterday.
- Alts such as XRP (104%) and DOGE (92%) are also starting to reach high levels of annualized funding rates, as per Coinglass
- Coinglass data shows $812 million in 24 hour liquidations, which is higher than Thursday’s $521.29 million.
- This is skewed 59% towards shorts liquidations, with ETH leading in terms of notional liquidations at $238 million followed by BTC at $147 million.
- Binance’s liquidation heatmap for BTC indicates high leverage positions at $119,000. BTC dominance continues to hover above 60% but is declining and with a sharp pickup in funding across majors and alts, potential short term cooldown in prices is a possibility.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 0.57% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $118,738.05 (24hrs: -0.26%)
- ETH is up 0.23% at $3,426.89 (24hrs: +4.58%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 3.51% at 4,046.62 (24hrs: +3.41%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 3.08%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0218% (23.871% annualized) on KuCoin
- DXY is down 0.37% at 98.37
- Gold futures are up 0.46% at $3,360.60
- Silver futures are up 1.30% at $38.80
- Nikkei 225 closed down 0.21% at 39,819.11
- Hang Seng closed up 1.33% at 24,825.66
- FTSE is up 0.28% at 8,997.58
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.44% at 5,400.99
- DJIA closed on Thursday up 0.52% at 44,484.49
- S&P 500 closed up 0.54% at 6,297.36
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.75% at 20,885.65
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.86% at 27,386.93
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.58% at 2,628.42
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.8 bps at 4.445%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.13% at 6,349.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.14% at 23,284.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.15% at 44,783.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 61.68% (-0.9%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03035 (4.08%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 898 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $60.07
- Total Fees: 6.33 BTC / $751,661
- CME Futures Open Interest: 159,640
- BTC priced in gold: 35.4 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 10.07%
Technical Analysis
- Market sentiment has turned sharply bullish following the House’s passage of the GENIUS and CLARITY acts alongside reports that President Trump is preparing to allow retirement accounts to invest in alternative assets, including digital assets.
- Among the standout performers, XRP surged to a new all-time high of $3.65.
- However, there are early signs of caution, with a potential bearish RSI divergence forming on the weekly timeframe.
- From a technical perspective, XRP needs to maintain a weekly close above $3.30 to invalidate the risk of a swing failure pattern.
- If the bullish conditions hold, the next long-term upside target for XRP could be around $5.19, which aligns with the key Fibonacci extension level following its retracement to the golden pocket in April.
Crypto Equities
- Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $451.34 (-1%), +0.56% at $453.85
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $410.75 (+3.15%), +1.74% at $417.91
- Circle (CRCL): closed at $235.08 (+0.81%), +2.94% at $241.99
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $26.04 (+6.9%), +10.45% at $28.76
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.97 (+2.73%), +0.95% at $20.16
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.33 (+6.05%), +0.98% at $13.46
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.47 (-3.23%), +1.11% at $13.62
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.98 (+3.26%), +1.16% at $13.13
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $26.83 (+2.52%), +3.54% at $27.78
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $43.6 (+2.08%), +0.46% at $43.80
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $36.3 (-4.92%), +2.89% at $37.35
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $36.4 (-2.62%), +5.19% at $38.29
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $522.6 million
- Cumulative net flows: $54.36 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $602 million
- Cumulative net flows: $7.1 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~4.78 million
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
- Ether futures open interest hit an all-time high as the second-largest cryptocurrency surges on an expected shift from yield-bearing stablecoins to ETH-based strategies.
- The cryptocurrency underperformed the wider market for months as bitcoin’s dominance rose. Now, it’s more than doubled in just three months.
While You Were Sleeping
- What Is Big Money Betting on? Bitcoin $140K, Ether $4K Calls Lead Open Interest (CoinDesk): The GENIUS Act’s stablecoin curbs are expected to drive more ETH staking and restaking, boosting activity on the Ethereum blockchain and strengthening ether’s long-term appeal to institutional treasuries, Republic Technologies’ CEO said.
- Dogecoin Open Futures Bets Surge to Record 16B DOGE as Prices Top Downtrend Line (CoinDesk): Open interest in DOGE futures has climbed 48% to a record 16.24 billion tokens, with positive funding rates signaling growing demand for bullish bets and potential for greater volatility.
- Bitcoin DeFi Has Ballooned 20x Since Start of 2024 as Builders Bet on Yield (CoinDesk): Bitcoin-native DeFi has grown to $6.36 billion from $307 million this year, led by lending protocols. Developers are exploring new infrastructure to overcome the blockchain’s limited smart-contract functionality.
- Lula Says He Won’t Take Orders From Foreigner Trump, Calls Tariffs Blackmail (Reuters): The Brazilian president, buoyed by rising approval since the feud with his U.S. counterpart began, vowed to press ahead with measures targeting U.S. social media platforms he called purveyors of fake news.
- EU Backs Revised Russia Oil Price Cap and New Russia Sanctions (Bloomberg): The new sanctions package expands SWIFT bans to 20 more Russian banks, targets 400 covert oil tankers and penalizes more foreign firms accused of helping Moscow evade trade restrictions.
- Japan Inflation Eases, But BOJ Still Faces Policy Challenges (The Wall Street Journal): A dip in Japan’s core inflation offered some relief, but sticky food prices and uncertainty over President Trump’s looming tariffs complicate the central bank’s outlook for further tightening.
In the Ether
