Jerome Powell’s speech at the Fed’s International Finance (IF) Division anniversary conference quietly signaled the central bank’s growing openness to easing monetary policy. This prospective shift has sent Bitcoin (BTC) soaring above $105,000.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to work against political pressure from President Trump, who advocates for rate cuts. This contention has sparked speculation of Powell’s imminent resignation.
Bitcoin Surges as IF Models Point to Dollar Weakness
Bitcoin surged past $105,000 on Monday, buoyed by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may be preparing to pivot its monetary policy stance later this year.
The rally followed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the International Finance (IF) Division’s 75th anniversary conference. Powell reiterated the critical role of global data and modeling in shaping US monetary policy in his speech.
However, he did not directly signal any change in interest rates. While Powell’s remarks were framed as a tribute to the IF Division’s legacy, analysts and crypto investors parsed his words for policy clues amid mounting signs of disinflation and economic resilience.
“Understanding this complex and interconnected web is essential for us to anticipate the path of employment and inflation,” Powell said.
Although Powell did not mention easing or rate cuts, he emphasized that IF research is central to the “risks and uncertainty assessment that FOMC committee participants receive in advance of every meeting.”
That line, coupled with the Fed Chair’s comment that the division’s work is “certainly relevant today,” has sparked speculation that the Fed is preparing for a potential dovish shift if current economic trends continue.
Fed’s Global Lens Aligns with Market Tailwinds
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed inflation cooling to just 2.3% year-over-year, nearing the Fed’s 2% target. At the same time, US unemployment remains steady at around 4.2%, suggesting the labor market remains resilient.
This combination of disinflation and job stability supports both prongs of the Fed’s dual mandate. Crypto market analyst Kyle Chassé pointed to these dynamics as fuel for risk assets like Bitcoin.
“FED PIVOT INCOMING? The last CPI came in at just +2.3% YoY. Unemployment is steady around 4.2%. Fed officials say if inflation keeps cooling and jobs stay strong, rate cuts are on the table later this year. That’s rocket fuel for Bitcoin,” Chassé posted on X.
Investors also noted that Powell praised the IF division’s development of advanced models for “assessing risks and uncertainties through alternative scenarios.” According to Powell, these are instrumental in understanding the impact of global shocks.
Though not tied to any specific forecast, these capabilities are increasingly viewed by market participants as laying the groundwork for responsive monetary policy in the second half (H2) of 2025.
Is Bitcoin’s Recovery A Bet on Policy Shifts?
Bitcoin’s move above $105,000 reflects broader optimism that the Fed will begin easing before year-end, especially if inflation continues its downward trend.
According to data on the CME FedWatchTool, markets are pricing in a 95.3% probability that the Fed will maintain the current target rate of 4.25-4.50 basis points (bps) at the June 18, 2025, FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, there is a 4.7% chance of a 25 bps cut to 40.0-4.25 bps.
Fed interest rate cut probabilities. Source: CME FedWatchTool
Though the central bank remains cautious in its public language, Powell’s focus on global risk modeling and his acknowledgment of ongoing uncertainty suggest a more>
“This work is critical to understanding the quantitative implications of uncertainty shocks. Certainly, relevant today,” Powell noted.
For Bitcoin bulls, that relevance could translate into a more accommodative environment in which digital assets benefit from loosening financial conditions, a weakening dollar, and investors seeking alternative stores of value.
While the Fed has not confirmed a pivot, the market is listening closely, with Bitcoin holding well above $105,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto
BeInCrypto data shows BTC was trading for $105,568 as of this writing, up by a modest 0.62% in the last 24 hours.
As Kyle Chassé suggests, a rate cut could spur Bitcoin’s growth. However, the high probability of no change may delay any significant bullish momentum in the near term, likely explaining the modest gains.
