Bitcoin has not yet witnessed the profit structure reset that the market witnessed in previous bear markets, despite the persistent declines.
Bitcoin ($BTC) has opened April with a modest rebound, rising 3% in the past 24 hours and moving back above the $68,000 mark. Despite this short-term strength, the broader trend still points downward, showing that the market remains under pressure.
Amid the downtrend, data shows Bitcoin’s profit structure has not yet gone through the kind of reset seen in past bear markets. Notably, in earlier cycles, prices had to fall much more before the market could fully recover.
Key Points
- Bitcoin has climbed 3% in 24 hours to trade above $68,000, but the overall downtrend still dominates the market.
- The 365-day average of profitability remains high at 87.5%, indicating no full reset.
- In past cycles, the long-term average dropped to 63.8%, before a profit structure reset played out.
- April historically delivers strong returns, but bear market conditions have previously led to declines.
- Data shows Bitcoin may need to drop below the $54,000 realized price before reaching a true market bottom.
Bitcoin Profitability Metrics Show Incomplete Reset
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. revealed this in one of his recent analyses. Notably, he pointed out that as of April 1, 2026, the rate of $BTC coins in profit has risen to 66.4%, and the 30-day moving average remains at 69.1%.
However, the more important long-term measure, the 365-day moving average (365DMA), is still high at 87.5%, which sets the current situation apart from past bear market resets.
Adler noted that the SMA365 helped confirm a full reset in earlier cycles. Specifically, after reaching 96-97% at the end of 2017, it dropped steadily and fell to 63.8% by May 2019. This sharp drop showed that the market had gone through a deep correction after the bull run ended.
This time, things look different. Even though short-term data shows weakness, the SMA365 remains close to 87.5%, which suggests the market has not yet reached a full capitulation stage.
Bitcoin Drawdowns Deepen but Long-Term Strength Holds
Adler also compared the current downturn with earlier pullbacks in this cycle. Notably, in September 2023 and September 2024, the market weakened short-term profitability but did not break the long-term average.
The 2026 drawdown has gone further. The metric has already dropped to 55.7%, while the 30DMA fell to 66.7%. Despite this, the SMA365 is still well above the levels seen during past resets, and this shows that the deeper, long-term reset has not happened yet.
From this, Adler concluded that the market is under strong pressure, with profitability shrinking. However, as long as the 365DMA stays near 87.5%, the current phase looks more like an extended correction with frequent price swings, rather than a full bear market reset.
Bitcoin Remains in Critical Conditions
Meanwhile, market watcher Ardi recently discussed Bitcoin’s seasonal trends. He noted that since 2014, April has been the third-best month, behind October and July, with an average return of 9.1% and a 67% win rate.
However, he admitted that the market conditions matter. According to him, 2026 is a bear market year, which changes how investors should view these seasonal patterns. Notably, strong past performance does not mean prices will rise when the overall trend is still weak.
He gave examples to support this. In 2014, Bitcoin ended April down 2%, and in 2022, it dropped 18.7%. Although April 2018 saw a gain of 35.7%, the move was just a sharp rebound within a bear market, not the start of a new cycle.
Elsewhere, CryptoQuant analyst Tugce highlighted that, despite the downturn, Bitcoin continues to trade way above the Realized Price, which is currently at $54,000.
She explained that in every major bear market, Bitcoin has fallen below its Realized Price before reaching a true bottom. Based on this, she sees $54,000 as an important level where buyers may step in. However, she warned that the price could drop well below this level and stay there for some time before recovering.
