For more than a month, Bitcoin has remained firmly above the $100,000 mark, which is a bullish accomplishment in and of itself. However, the fact that it has not been able to break above $110,000 with any degree of certainty is beginning to cause some concern. Bitcoin has retraced to $107,900 after reaching a peak just below its all-time high.
It is currently stalling at significant resistance and may be losing momentum. Technically speaking, Bitcoin is still above three significant moving averages: the 50-day EMA ($105,750), the 100-day EMA ($103,011) and the 200-day EMA ($98,082), indicating that the overall trend is still in place. On the other hand, recent candles exhibit hesitation close to resistance, and volume has been steadily declining.
Instead of preparing for a breakout, this could mean that Bitcoin is moving into a long-term consolidation range between $100,000 and $110,000. The fundamentals of Bitcoin are currently in a more concerning state. The fundamental strength of Bitcoin has not changed, according to Swissblock’s Bitcoin Fundamental Index (BFI), which integrates metrics for network growth and liquidity.
Often regarded as the cutoff point for healthy momentum, the 60 level has not been broken by the BFI, which is currently hovering in the neutral zone. BTC does not have the necessary momentum to overcome resistance and move into price discovery in the absence of a noticeable increase in inflows or network activity. If this lack of fundamental momentum persists, traders and institutions may start to take profits, which could cause the price to fall below $105,000 and possibly even below $100,000.
The market may correct toward the 200-day EMA around $98,000 or in a more extreme scenario down to $90,000. This would be possible if that psychological support were to be broken. Although Bitcoin is displaying resilience, there are also red flags. Without fresh inflows and network growth, there will not be any breakout, so the upcoming weeks are crucial for the asset’s midterm trajectory.
