Binance's tracked ERC-20 stablecoin reserves are near $32 billion after a substantial decline, giving traders a reason to compare the exchange's remaining buying capacity with actual Bitcoin orders. A November 10 comparison with OKX found that Binance had a higher total value of nearby Bitcoin buy orders in one narrow market band, even though its tracked stablecoin balance remained below October levels.
Community analyst Novaque Research, posting via CryptoQuant, put the balance at roughly $32 billion on Nov. 10, down from about $41 billion to $42 billion in late October. Its reserve comparison also placed OKX near $9 billion, with balances there trending lower. This offers little support for the simple interpretation that Binance's lost tracked reserves have shifted to that rival.
Bitcoin was trading around $74,000 on Nov. 10. Coinbase's $BTC-USD ticker recorded a last trade of $74,056 at 10:41:58 UTC. The reserve observations come after the Oct. 29 hack at Binance and the subsequent reopening of withdrawals, which CryptoSlate covered last week.
In a separate Nov. 9 post, community analyst oinonen_t, via CryptoQuant, reported that Binance's ERC-20 stablecoin reserves had fallen 25.6% from an early-October starting point to 32 billion units. The same analysis reported a smaller 7.6% decline in Bitcoin reserves, to approximately 673,000 $BTC.
These figures point to a larger proportional decline in the tracked stablecoin balance. However, they use an early-October comparison, whereas Novaque's latest post refers to late October. The exact synchronized dates and wallet coverage are unspecified, so combining the figures would overstate what is known about the hack's effect.
The network coverage also matters. ERC-20 balances exclude stablecoins held on other networks. Novaque cautions that wallet restructuring and cross-chain transfers may account for part of the decline. CryptoSlate's earlier reporting on Binance's Tether routing likewise showed why a drop in identified Ethereum balances does not prove an equivalent withdrawal of customer dollars.
CryptoQuant defines exchange reserves as coins held in exchange addresses and describes stablecoin reserves as potential buying power. The word “potential” matters: an inventory figure does not reveal how much is being offered to buy Bitcoin at a given price.
What the Bitcoin order books show
At around 10:42 UTC on Nov. 10, a snapshot of Binance's public $BTC-$USDT order book showed approximately 1,980,000 $USDT in displayed buy orders within 5 basis points, or 0.05%, below its midpoint. The nearly contemporaneous OKX book showed about 980,000 $USDT within the same distance below its own midpoint.
The midpoint is halfway between the highest buy price and the lowest sell price. The quoted $USDT value is calculated by multiplying each eligible buy order's price by its Bitcoin quantity and summing the results. Both order books extended beyond the measured band, making a complete comparison at that width possible. These amounts are in $USDT and are distinct from Coinbase's US-dollar trade.
In this sample, Binance displayed more buying interest at those nearby prices. But orders can change before execution, and one pair of observations cannot establish lasting depth, a decline from an earlier period or a return to pre-hack conditions. The snapshot measures what was displayed at the time, not how much Bitcoin buyers actually purchased.
Customer backing addresses a different question. Binance says its proof of reserves covers assets held in custody for users. That measure does not show which balances customers have committed to Bitcoin buy orders. Customer inventory, Binance's corporate resources and posted buy orders are not interchangeable pools.
The order-book snapshot was taken before the scheduled US inflation release. The Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar listed October CPI for Nov. 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, or 13:30 UTC.
For holders assessing a rebound, stronger executed spot buying alongside buy orders that are replenished as sellers execute would challenge the concern that the smaller tracked stablecoin balance signals impaired trading liquidity. Continued reserve declines accompanied by persistently thinner depth at comparable widths would reinforce that concern.
Source: cryptoslate.com. Adapted by NBTC.
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