The cryptocurrency market, along with traditional stock markets, experienced a significant downturn in the first quarter of 2025. This market downturn is attributed to both trade war fears and diminished user sentiment, as indicated by the declining net unrealized profit/loss.
BTC Dominance Rises
After ending 2024 on a high note, the cryptocurrency market took a hit in the first quarter of 2025, with bitcoin ( BTC) ending March nearly 12% lower than its Jan. 1 price of approximately $93,500. However, when contrasted with its Jan. 20 peak—Donald Trump’s inauguration day—of just over $109,000, BTC’s value at the end of March was more than 30% lower.
Ethereum, the next top-ranked cryptocurrency by market capitalization, plunged by 45% while Solana ended the quarter down 34%. The same was true for other altcoins, which took harder hits than BTC, as evidenced by the latter asset’s increased dominance from 53.54% on Jan. 1 to 62.8% by the end of Q1. Similarly, stock markets, including key U.S. equity indices like the S&P 500 (-4.9%) and Nasdaq (-10.27%), had a forgettable quarter.
Throughout Q1, many observers attributed the turmoil in both conventional and alternative asset markets to trade war fears. At the time, many economists warned of dire consequences for the U.S. and its trade partners if U.S. President Donald Trump followed through on his tariff promises.
Meanwhile, an analysis by AMINA attributes the BTC slowdown to diminished user sentiment, a metric derived from analyzing BTC’s net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) chart. As explained in the report, “the higher the metric, the more unrealized gains there are on-chain—and the lower it goes, the more losses stack up.”
As shown in the chart, the NUPL trended downward, especially after Jan. 20, and on March 10, it touched its lowest point this year.
“Throughout Q1, NUPL trended downward, hitting a low of 0.446 on March 10. At that point, unrealized losses outweighed unrealized gains by about 24%, reflecting growing investor frustration. It was a clear sign that market participants were feeling the pressure as prices struggled to gain momentum,” the AMINA study report stated.
In addition to the piling unrealized losses, a slowdown in BTC accumulation, especially by larger entities, was observed. Data showed this metric averaged just 0.1 in Q1, indicating little aggressive accumulation, while a median score of 0.07 suggests not only that buying was weak overall but also that most days saw even less accumulation than the already-low average.
“Simply put, the market wasn’t in the mood to stack more Bitcoin, reflecting the cautious sentiment throughout the quarter,” the report concluded.
