Cardano has been trading in a tight range this week, but a breakout could follow soon. With the SEC’s big ETF decision set for tomorrow, traders are hopeful that this could spark a bullish move for ADA.
The odds of an ADA ETF approval have surged to 71% on Tuesday on Polymarket, the highest since April 20. This comes ahead of a key May 29 deadline for the SEC to decide on Grayscale’s proposed Cardano ETF.
🇺🇸 Grayscale’s Cardano $ADA ETF deadline for decision is this week.
The SEC must approve, deny, or delay it by this Thursday, May 29.
Do you think it’ll get approval this week? pic.twitter.com/84o9lyLksJ
— Cardanians (CRDN) (@Cardanians_io) May 26, 2025
The SEC has up to 240 days to review Grayscale’s spot ADA ETF filing, with the final deadline set for October 22. According to the official acknowledgement on February 24, it can delay its decision multiple times. So, a delay could be more likely instead of rejection or approval.
ADA Holds Steady, ETF Optimism Peaks at 71%
In mid-April, the chances of approval before the end of 2025 were only 37% on Polymarket. But the odds now over 70% show that traders are optimistic even after the SEC delayed XRP ETFs recently.
Eric Balchunas, ETF analyst at Bloomberg, says there’s a 75% chance the ETF will launch this year. He also thinks the SEC might approve several crypto ETFs as soon as this summer.
XRP, Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) are also in the ETF spotlight, with multiple spot filings in play. Polymarket shows strong odds for approvals before 2025 – 84% for XRP, 83% for SOL, and 67% for DOGE.
Cardano’s Ecosystem Trails
A key hurdle Cardano is facing is its ecosystem underperformance. The network currently supports only 48 DeFi apps, holds $443 million in total value locked, and has only $31 million in stablecoins. However, newer chains like Unichain and Sonic are outpacing Cardano by a wide margin.
Technicals Signal Bullish Setup for ADA
Cardano’s technicals are bullish as the weekly chart is flashing bullish signals. It continues to trade above the 100-week moving average, a key long-term support level. If the momentum holds, it could retest last year’s high of $1.207. If it breaks out above that level, then $2 may be next. It is currently trading at $0.7524.
RSI is neutral at 51, but MACD and momentum indicators are slightly bearish, which shows short-term weakness. But long-term trends 30-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs remain bullish with strong long-term support.
The decision tomorrow could be a major catalyst for ADA’s next move. An approval from the SEC could open the door to institutional money and send ADA soaring past $0.84, kicking off a fresh rally.
