The cryptocurrency market was shaken after Bitcoin’s price dropped below $93,000, shedding 14% from its recent all-time high of $108,135.
Analysts attribute the decline to the minutes of the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), released on Wednesday, which highlighted the influence of the Trump administration on the Fed’s hawkish policy stance.
Fed minutes revealed that concerns about the policy implications of Donald Trump’s second term as president played a significant role in shaping the central bank’s outlook. The development challenges the general narrative that Trump’s return to the White House will trigger a crypto market rally, according to Presto Labs analysts Peter Chung and Min Jung.
Trump has vowed to reduce the regulatory red tape that has long frustrated the crypto industry, and many analysts have predicted his policies could propel Bitcoin to $200,000 by 2025. However, recent market behavior suggests a recalibration is underway, and experts warn patience is warranted.
“A breakout will occur once the market has completed its recalibration process and uncertainty has cleared,” Chung and Jung wrote in a research note, adding that signs of a recovery may not emerge until after Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20 and the first 100 days of his administration.
Carlos Guzman, an analyst at GSR, noted that many positive catalysts have already occurred, such as Trump appointing crypto-friendly officials. However, he maintains a bullish long-term outlook, especially for 2025, when regulatory clarity and pro-crypto policies from the US could materialize.
In the short term, analysts point to several factors that could revive the rally:
Pro-crypto nominations: Trump is expected to make additional crypto-supporting appointments to key regulatory positions.
FTX bankruptcy payments: These payments, scheduled for February, could return between $2-8 billion to the crypto markets.
China’s economic challenges: David Brickell, head of international distribution at FRNT Financial, noted Bitcoin’s potential to benefit from capital outflows as China’s yuan weakens.
*This is not investment advice.
