Gold could climb to $6,000 an ounce during Donald Trump’s second term because a sharper tariff regime would weaken the dollar, investment manager Frank Holmes told Kitco News this week in a wide-ranging interview.
Frank Holmes Outlines Bold $6,000 Gold and Bitcoin Growth Outlook
Holmes, chief executive and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors in San Antonio, explained in a recent interview that bullion has lagged the surge in global money supply. “When I look at M2 growth globally, I look at the G20 countries in particular, the most biggest of ten countries, I think gold should be going to $6,000 over the term of President Trump,” he said, reiterating a forecast he first made earlier this year.
The veteran fund manager linked his outlook to tariff policies that he believes could push the U.S. currency down by roughly 25%, mirroring the prospective tariff rate touted by the U.S. president. A weaker dollar typically supports dollar-denominated commodities such as gold. Holmes added that central bank purchases and investor apathy toward bullion exchange-traded funds create additional room for prices to appreciate.
Holmes also sees an extension of bitcoin’s rally. He told Kitco’s news anchor Jeremy Szafron that once the leading cryptocurrency clears the $97,000 level — a price band he views as a supply overhang — it could advance to between $120,000 and $150,000 per BTC, with a longer-term path that follows network-effect mathematics such as Metcalfe’s law.
The fund manager noted:
It’s easy for it to go to a quarter million dollars as the adoption takes place and that’s because the security is real. It’s capped at 21 million coins.
He pointed to nearly $1 billion of single-day inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs this month and growing interest from U.S. state pension plans as evidence that the digital asset is gaining a foothold with mainstream allocators. Bitcoin’s finite 21 million-coin cap and the added exposure provided by exchange-traded products, he argued, could ignite a supply squeeze among institutions chasing scarce supply.
Despite the digital asset’s rise, Holmes maintained that gold remains indispensable. He advocates a “10% golden rule” allocation and noted that large miners are using free cash flow to pay down debt and repurchase shares, improving balance sheets even as junior explorers struggle for capital. In his view, the two assets serve complementary roles: gold offers tangible insurance, while bitcoin delivers portability in a digital economy.
Looking ahead, Holmes said he is “bullish on decentralized assets” and sees the coming years as a reset period shaped by geopolitics, trade realignments and evolving investor demographics. Holmes emphasized that his projections are contingent on policy follow-through and disciplined portfolio construction principles.
