On Thursday, the prediction markets were incorporated into trade.xyz’s Hyperliquid trading platform via the launch of Events. The platform already operated one of the largest perpetual businesses on the network. Therefore, traders can now trade prices, interest rates, or scores without the need of switching to a different prediction market platform.
This is important since trade.xyz does not have to start from scratch. Coin Metrics referred to trade.xyz as Hyperliquid’s top HIP-3 developer by opportunity trading and volume, allowing Events to immediately reach an already established group of traders in cryptocurrency.
Events runs on HIP-4, not a separate venue
Events is based upon Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal 4 (HIP-4) that permits the addition of fully collateralized outcome contracts to HyperCore. trade.xyz launches the markets under the venue name txyz. Each market uses a validator-approved template, but the deployer is responsible for choosing permitted parameters and for publishing how the outcome will be resolved.
The launch of Events is also in line with the larger goal of trade.xyz for this platform. In announcing Events, the company stated:
“vision of Hyperliquid as the universal exchange”
In effect, this innovation allows the company to incorporate prediction markets as another product in Hyperliquid’s overall trading portfolio rather than as a separate gambling venue.
The costs remain minimal during the launch phase. According to the documentation of trade.xyz, deployerFeeScale is currently set to zero, which means the company does not apply any additional deployer fee, while charging standard fees for outcome trading on Hyperliquid.
How the contracts settle, and where trust sits
The outcome contracts under HIP-4 are considered to be fully collateralized, which means that no leverage, funding payments, and liquidation are needed in this case. In a binary marketplace, when trading in Yes and No positions, one uses the same economic order book; thus, buying Yes for price p would be the same as selling No for 1-p.
The most significant problem here is settlement. trade.xyz breaks down the process of resolution into two steps. First, the published methodology determines the result based on the declared data source. Next, the result is uploaded into HyperCore by the txyz deployer or the designated settlement address. The data source performs no settlement on its own.
The Daily Up/Down markets utilize a five-minute average from Hyperliquid candle data, while the initial sports markets utilize ESPN unless specified otherwise. trade.xyz cautions that corrections, delays, or uncertain outcomes may cause delayed settlements, thereby ensuring the importance of resolution design and the integrity of the oracle to market risk.
A distribution edge most rivals lack
Coin Metrics reported that trade.xyz accounted for about 55% of Hyperliquid perpetual-market volume in August. As of its August 18 report, the platform had facilitated more than $460 billion in volume since January, roughly 30% of Hyperliquid’s total, while holding more than $4 billion in open interest. It also generated about $5 million in fees over the preceding month.
That footprint gives Events a built-in distribution advantage. Prediction contracts can be put in front of traders already using trade.xyz for crypto, equities, commodities and other perpetual markets.
Cryptopolitan reported on August 31 that Hyperliquid was opening prediction-market deployment to third parties, with trade.xyz preparing its own launch and a 500,000 HYPE bond required for outside outcome deployers.
The stakes for Polymarket and Kalshi
The market is already much larger than it was earlier this year. Galaxy’s June 9 analysis said combined prediction-market lifetime volume crossed $150 billion in April. That month, Kalshi recorded $14.81 billion in notional volume and Polymarket $9.01 billion.
The latest Artemis prediction-market data supplied for this article shows how quickly the sector has grown. Combined lifetime volume across the tracked venues has reached about $402.76 billion. In August 2026, the latest complete month in the dataset, Kalshi generated $40.03 billion in notional volume, compared with about $8.50 billion for Polymarket across its international and U.S. activity.
Kalshi retains the advantage of regulated U.S. exchange access, while Polymarket remains strong in consumer discovery. Hyperliquid is making a different bet: if event contracts become a routine line item beside perpetuals in the same account, prediction markets begin to look less like a niche and more like a standard part of onchain derivatives trading.
