Jiang Zhuoer, one of China’s best-known Bitcoin miners, said Bitcoin may reach its bear-market bottom between October and December 2026.
He placed the possible $BTC bottom price between $42,000 and $44,000, based on a long-term cycle model and Strategy’s falling mNAV.
In a post on X, Jiang said Strategy’s mNAV had dropped to 0.72. He noted that the level sits close to the 0.7 mark seen on May 11, 2022, during the prior cycle shift. He described the current area as a possible low zone for mNAV, not a confirmed low for Bitcoin.
Jiang also linked the reading to recent stress around Strategy-linked sentiment, including the de-anchoring of STRC. He said the setup could support long MSTR and short $BTC arbitrage trades for some market participants. The comment centered on timing, not a near-term bullish Bitcoin call.
mNAV model drives the forecast
Jiang used mNAV, or market net asset value, to compare Strategy’s stock price with the value of Bitcoin backing each share. A reading above 1 can show a premium, while a reading below 1 can show weak market demand for the stock relative to its Bitcoin holdings.
He said the last cycle showed a gap between the mNAV low and the $BTC price low. Strategy’s mNAV bottomed in May 2022 when Bitcoin traded near $31,017. Bitcoin then reached its cycle low near $15,476 on Nov. 21, 2022, about six months later.
Jiang said his model points to Oct. 31, 2026, for a possible bear-market low near $44,016. He added that the model’s timing record is stronger than its price record. His wider range puts the possible bottom at “$42,000 to $44,000.”
Market stress adds context
The call comes as Bitcoin trades under renewed pressure after losing major support levels in June. As crypto.news reported, Bitcoin fell below $60,000 for a second time this month, triggering more than $850 million in crypto liquidations.
The selloff also hit Strategy shares, which fell sharply as investors reduced exposure to crypto-linked equities. In a previous article, crypto.news discussed how Strategy’s NAV premium had already dropped as interest in Bitcoin treasury stocks weakened.
Previously, crypto.news explored bear-market targets for Bitcoin as analysts watched the $60,000 to $62,000 zone. That report said some forecasts had moved toward $50,000, $45,000, and $40,000 before 2027, while stressing that no model can confirm a future low.
Forecast remains only a model
Jiang’s prediction remains a market view, not a confirmed outcome. Bitcoin can move on liquidity, ETF flows, interest-rate expectations, exchange leverage, and macro events. These factors can change the timing and depth of any drawdown.
Jiang said he had recently sold spot holdings and taken short positions for mid- to short-term trades. He said he would start buying spot again near the projected bottom. The forecast gives traders one cycle-based view to track, but Bitcoin’s path will depend on market data in the months ahead.
The main test will be whether Strategy’s mNAV continues to lead Bitcoin price action, as Jiang suggests. Traders will also watch whether $BTC holds current support or moves closer to deeper bear-market targets before 2027. Any break in the model would weaken the forecast and shift attention back to spot demand.
